Not a pretty picture for the start of the season

Actually, we had low water as recently as 2012 for this same week in April. Check the USGS site. The Little Juniata is running 200-250 cfi this week. In 2012 the LJ started the week at 180 cfi until it spiked to the median on the 23d. I did the same comparison with NC freestoners like Pine -- same thing. What little notes I keep shows that I had good fishing that year.
 
Last time I did the rain dance before heading to the Delaware, we had flows over 5500 CFS at Hale Eddy gauge. We did pretty dam good for extreme high water conditions. Heading g up next week and I'm starting the rain dance now. Sorry if it jacks up anyone elses fishing.
 
The people who are concerned and who are not concerned really are not so different as yinz think.

The effect they will have on rainfall and stream flows is exactly the same.
 


We are in a dry spell right now, but the water temps are good. As well, the fishing has been good for the most part thus far.

Weather predictions show quite a bit of rain in the forecast. If that happens we should be in good shape.

Now we can shift our concerns to important issues....like transgender bathrooms and which candidate to vote for > Trump or Hill-a-ree:roll:

 
Troy wrote:
geebee wrote:
the forecast on wunderground shows 1/2" rain due next week every day from Sunday through Wednesday.

I'm more worried about too much water on spring Creek the following weekend, rather than too little.

I wouldn't worry much about too much water on Spring. It still fishes well. Even if we get 2 inches of rain Spring will drop fast especially since it is low.


Troy

that's good to hear, I guess higher up will be better right ? above the hatchery etc ?

on the plus side, warm wet weather is good for hatches isn't it ? if the rain is not too hard ?

I'm actually going to try mainly fishing the dry fly in the evenings, as that's something I've rarely done.

cheers

Mark.
 
I wouldn't worry about anywhere upstream from Bellefonte where Logan Branch enters. I am not sure what the effects are from Logan Branch when it rains because I have never fished downstream from it. Anywhere upstream will be fine. Spring Creek handles water very well. It might be dirty, but that doesn't affect much. Considering how low everything is the rain will only help. I doubt we get much rain anyway. Even an inch of rain won't affect it much at all. If it does, it won't be for a long period of time.

I really don't know where you see the forecast for all this rain. I will be fishing the area starting next Wednesday to Saturday and have been watching the forecast. I don't see what you see.
 
Algae getting on your flies and not needing any weight in April. That usually happens in the summer. It's not summer.

Actually, algae has always been worst for me in March-April. After sun angle gets relatively high, but before leaves. More light on the water. When leaves come out the algae dies back and turns that slimy, slippery brown in late spring till you get a good blow out.

Weather predictions show quite a bit of rain in the forecast. If that happens we should be in good shape.

Yup. Southern jet has come up to us. It's thunderstorm season now. Gonna be near daily bouts of hit or miss storms for the next month or two, plus lots more cloud cover, leading to cooler days but warmer nights.

Regarding my levels of fear regarding temps and water levels, I'm never scared of dry weather in early spring as long as the southern jet is strong and still south of us. If it's south, it can't get too warm without coming north, and when it comes north with the warmth it will bring rain as well.

When I get a little fearful is when:

1. The jet stream gets too far north of us, leaving us hot and dry. In summers where this happens, it happens in July and August.

2. the southern jet is very weak altogether. Typically a cooler but dry summer is in store.

But in this el-nino year, that's not the case at all. The southern jet is screaming.
 
Just looking at accuweather, picked State College since it's the center of the state. Rain is mentioned in the forecast for 17 of the next 25 days.

 
Didn't realize you were a meteorologist/climatologist too pcray....just kidding, that's some interesting analysis
 
Dry in the east and dry in the west- had some showers yesterday around Pittsburgh. Judging by the increase in leaf volume, I'd say that's where all the rainfall went.

The yough seems much more consistent with releases/flows than the D from what I gather from you guys- today it dropped as low as I had ever seen. ( at least what the gages report ) Like to see some of the tricky parts with this low flow. Go rain.
 
pcray I don't really count a drizzle I don't trust anything accuweather says
 
Troy wrote:
I wouldn't worry about anywhere upstream from Bellefonte where Logan Branch enters. I am not sure what the effects are from Logan Branch when it rains because I have never fished downstream from it. Anywhere upstream will be fine. Spring Creek handles water very well. It might be dirty, but that doesn't affect much. Considering how low everything is the rain will only help. I doubt we get much rain anyway. Even an inch of rain won't affect it much at all. If it does, it won't be for a long period of time.

I really don't know where you see the forecast for all this rain. I will be fishing the area starting next Wednesday to Saturday and have been watching the forecast. I don't see what you see.

thanks again Troy. I was looking at state college on wunderground dot com.

looking again just now - it shows drizzle most days apart from 0.75" on this sunday so I expect the fishing to be okay.
 
pcray I don't really count a drizzle I don't trust anything accuweather says.

Well, I don't really trust when any prognostication says an individual system is going to come through more than a few days in advance. So I'm not taking it verbatim.

But I do trust overall patterns, not just from accuweather, but from looking at weather maps, models, etc.

What happened before is that the northern jet moved north like it's supposed to do in spring, but the southern jet didn't play along thanks to an Omega block. So northern moisture starved clippers passed well to our north, while southern humidity wasn't funneling in over us.

The fact of the matter is that the block is gone. The southern jet is arriving to our latitude. Look outside now. Cloud cover. Wet air. Flow from the south or southwest instead of the NW. A pattern change is in store. As it gets close, the jets are back together again and battling it out. We may get a few phasing storms with both jets in play over the next week or two. Cool light or moderate rain all day type soakers. Big green blobs on the radar moving on through. Like what's predicted for this Sunday.

As the southern jet passes us and goes to our north we'll get in more of a late spring pattern. Warm fronts, followed by a day or three of muggy, pop-up t-storm weather with light winds from the south, punctuated by cold fronts oriented either N/S or NE/SW associated with lines of stronger storms, which will usher in cooler, drier air for a day or two, followed by another warm front. Generally shorter duration, but heavier downpour type situation.

Later in summer, if that southern jet gets too far north, the air will still have the heat for storms, but the southern jet will be too removed from the Gulf of Mexico to bring enough moisture. That's what I worry about every year in terms of trout survival. Need the southern jet to calm down by then, so that it can less progressive, and get all curvy and dip down south now and then.
 
Fished today Troy. Water was actually on the high side and super cold. Didn't get to take a temp but could feet the cold coming of the water and water felt freezing
 
Jessed wrote:
Fished today Troy. Water was actually on the high side and super cold. Didn't get to take a temp but could feet the cold coming of the water and water felt freezing [/quote

Yeah, red dots on the USGS site mean the creeks are on the "high side". Maybe if it was August. It's April. Water temp isn't an issue yet. Take a temperature reading in a month if we don't get any substantial rainfall. There is rain in the forecast so that is a start.
 
Wasn't saying all of the creeks. Just the ones I've fished in berks county.
 
And idea which creeks are are monitored in berks ?
 
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=pa

Tulphehocken (3 locations, upstream from lake, just below dam, and at mouth)

Schuylkill River (2 locations, at Berne, and at Reading)

Maiden Creek @ Virginville

Manatawney @ Spangsville
 
I hope pcray just starting to rain here in Coburn right now.
 
Back
Top