Not a pretty picture for the start of the season

[wildtrout2]

I'm glad somebody else started the annual "we need rain" thread! lmao

 

[DavidFin]

Sorry man, just trying to be optimistic.

 

[Mike]

Krayfish,
You adapt by fishing other, colder trout waters or you switch to Smallmouth. It's that simple.

 

[Twofly]

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/cooler-summer-predicted-for-northeast-great-lakes
I dont how cooler temps relate to perciptation, but alot of the weather sites are predicting a very cool summer for the northeast. Lets hope!

 

[krayfish2]

Mike,
I did adapt by not fishing, loading the car and heading back home. Couldn't fish the Susky as it was closed til mid June. Played golf instead.

Twofly,
Didn't see that forecast but that's good news if it holds true.

 

[evw659]

I dont how cooler temps relate to perciptation, but alot of the weather sites are predicting a very cool summer for the northeast. Lets hope!

Not trying to heckle, but I think the guys at accuweather are predicting pretty much the opposite as far as summertime temperatures. I don't know if it's unanimous among the meteorologists, but some of them say it's supposed to be a scorcher this summer. Only time will tell, goes to show you that it seems like predicting the dominant weather pattern locally 2 to 3 months ahead of time is like trying to hit the bullseye on a dartboard with a blindfold on.

 

[dryflyguy]

It's pretty early to be getting worked up about low stream levels IMO.
What's happening now, means diddley squat a month from now.

Last year, I took off the third week of april - mainly to fish the delaware - and we got a deluge that blew out all of the larger streams for the whole week.
I was off again the week before memorial day - and was finally able to get on the Big D with pretty good conditions. I had to wear thermals most of the week, and didn't see any dead fish then.

I also remember it raining like every other day for the whole months of june and july last year - keeping me off all the larger streams until august

 

[pcray1231]

What is the best way to adapt your trout angling when the water temps are over 72 degrees.

Go somewhere where water temps aren't over 72 degrees. We have over 3000 wild trout streams in the state.

Last summer was not an especially bad one regarding fish survival overall. There are isolated problems EVERY year. I'm sorry that one of them happened to lead to some fingerling deaths at your favorite water.

 

[krayfish2]

Pat,
This isn't about "with my favorite water". David brought it up so I responded. Just as I'll respond to your post. Yes, the Beaverkill is flowing at 311cfs while the normal discharge is around 950cfs for this time of the year. Look at the map! Almost all waters in PA are 10% - 25% their norm. I'm not talking about a specific watershed but simply stating there's an awful lot of red dots on that map for this time of year. Makes me a little worried about the peak part of the season. If you think the drakes on Penns fish better at 92cfs as opposed to 350cfs, more power to ya. Once the air temps come up and the sun angle gets higher, many low flow water will become too warm to fish. I just don't want a short spring fishing season ...... Again. I'm sure mother nature will give us some rain

 

[Troy]

Some of you people just crack me up. You will argue to death that the sun is blue if you could. If you don't see that the creeks and rivers need rain then maybe you should get off the computer and actually go fish. Unreal.

 

[PennypackFlyer]

Life is like a box of chocolates, Ya never know what your going to get!!

 

[pcray1231]

Almost all waters in PA are 10% - 25% their norm. I'm not talking about a specific watershed but simply stating there's an awful lot of red dots on that map for this time of year.

Obviously you're not a statistician! The 50th percentile is not the year round average. It's that day's average. i.e. the same flow level can be red in April, when the average is higher, and blue in August, when the average is lower.

And 25th percentile does not mean 25% of a "normal" flow. It means that if you looked at that individual day over 100 years, it's higher on that day about 3/4 of the time, and lower on about 1/4. So we're talking about, roughly, 1 standard deviation. Meaning, this level of variation is well within the norm.

I'm not claiming that things aren't lower than average. They are. But hardly to unheard of levels. If you get up in arms everytime flows drop below the 25th percentile, well, you'll be up in arms 25% of the time! In April being low is not all that damaging. It's just not the time to worry.

In August, on the other hand, even average flows lead to borderline temps, so you should be on edge most of the time (not that there's anything you can do about it, that's just the climate we live in, which makes the average stream borderline for trout at that time of year).

Water temps in April are a very poor predictor of water temps in August. What is a good predictor? Base level FLOWS in August.

As a rule of thumb, "base" flows (after runoff) on freestoners are a function of about the last 2-3 weeks of rainfall. On limestoners and tailwaters, it's more like 2-3 months. So, things as they stand in late March have almost zero predictive capability for how things will stand in July and August, when it matters most to most streams. I can just about guarantee June will bring some above average and below average flows. What I care about is the total accumulation of rainfall from about June 1 through the end of August, weighting higher towards that which falls in late July through the end of August.

The El Nino is severely weakened. But the general approach to what El Nino does to PA in summer time is to bring fewer, but larger systems. i.e. expect a few thorough soakers with long breaks in between.

 

[troutbert]

Pine Creek at Cedar Run - 572 cfs

Young Womans Creek - 57 cfs

These are not low flows. They are nice fishing levels and perfectly fine for the trout.

In the summer, YWC frequently goes below 10 cfs. And during droughts it goes below 5 cfs, and has gone down to 2 cfs and even lower.

Don't be misled by the color of the dots on the USGS map.

 

[krayfish2]

TB,
Don't confuse nice fishing flows with normal flows for this time of the year. In the spring, they typically don't go hand in hand. I'm sure Pat will fill you in on where you went wrong with your thought process.


pcray wrote:

Obviously you're not a statistician! The 50th percentile is not the year round average. It's that day's average.

Nope, never claimed to be a statistician. I should have typed "10 - 24 percentile" so that I didn't receive a lecture from you on how to read the gauges and interpret data. I know what I meant and feel that you did too..... but you've decided to "pcray" me.

i.e. the same flow level can be red in April, when the average is higher, and blue in August, when the average is lower.

Simple response: No shiit Sherlock

Water temps in April are a very poor predictor of water temps in August.

I'll worry about August when it gets here. I'm looking at conditions for April and early May.

As a rule of thumb, "base" flows (after runoff) on freestoners are a function of about the last 2-3 weeks of rainfall. On limestoners and tailwaters, it's more like 2-3 months. So, things as they stand in late March have almost zero predictive capability for how things will stand in July and August, when it matters most to most streams.

Since a majority of my fishing is done on tailwaters, I usually don't have to worry about high summer water temps (for the most part). You keep reading this as I'm concerned about July and August flows. I'm not nor am I trying to predict flows at that time of the year.

What I care about is the total accumulation of rainfall from about June 1 through the end of August, weighting higher towards that which falls in late July through the end of August.

I'm sure that this is a concern for most trout fishermen during the summer. I started this thread in March and was simply pointing out that the flows are low for this time of year.....which has me concerned. Spring is the time for many big hatches, for fish to feed / grow / recover from the winter, critical for the newly hatched generation, etc. Low water may expose more fish to predators, tenkara fishermen and limit deep refuge from pursuing anglers. On some streams, consistent low water could make the stream unfishable in mid May and not late June as it would be under 'normal' flows.

I'm not trying to be the boy that cried wolf, just pointing out unusually low flows for this time of year. Not overly worried about the flow on August 29th or attempting to predict levels on July 18th.

 

[troutbert]

krayfish2 wrote:
TB,
Don't confuse nice fishing flows with normal flows for this time of the year.

I didn't state that the flows are normal for this time of year. I know that the flows are below average.

If your hypothesis is that flows in late March or April 1 have a lot of influence on flows in the summer months, go ahead and try to make the case.

I don't think that they do, for the reasons PCray already stated.

 

[krayfish2]

Honestly, what's wrong with you people? Please point out where I drew a parallel between today's flow and the flows of July or August. I'll golf or bass fish mid summer and not bother thermally stressed trout.

 

[wildtrout2]

Yes, most streams are too low for this early in the season, but temps are not an issue at this time. I have never had a wild trout stream temp over 63F in my entire fishing career! Never. It all has to do with WHERE you are fishing.

 

[Van_Cleaver]

We are lucky here (Southeast) Caught a thunderstorm yesterday and light rain and cool right now. Some creeks are actually above median flow. I might take an up close and personal look this afternoon....

 

[RCFetter]

For SEPA rain is forecasted for today, Apr 4, 7, 8, & 9. Temps are expected to be cool.

 

[krayfish2]

wt2,
Right off the top of my head, 3 wild trout streams that will surely see water temps in excess of 63 degrees in the heat of summer..... Penns, Big Fishing and Spring. Yes, headwater sections stay cool but mid / lower sections usually get too warm to fish by mid summer. Rather not see the 'marginal' water become unfishable in late May if ya know what I mean.

I did get a call from a guy in the Poconos last night and they are to get 4" of snow Sunday. 73 and then snow...we have some jacked up weather patterns right now.