Not a pretty picture for the start of the season

Kray, I didn't say wild trout streams won't exceed that temp, I simply said I haven't fished one that was warmer than 63F. I tend to seek out higher gradient streams which generally stay colder/cooler through the year. That's why it all depends on WHERE you're fishing.
Like Mike said, you gotta adapt. lol
 
thankfully we got a shot of rain in SEPA last night but wow, that is grim grim reading.

and look at the D - 225cfs - yikes - which is exactly where it was last Memorial Day weekend.

why is that so low ? are they storing water like last year, which if I recall correctly they started releasing on June 1 ?

if its going to be the same this year, i'll wait til June I think as last year, though I got two 20" fish on nymphs, the hatches sucked.

I guess the spring creeks is the way to go.

cheers

Mark.
 
Reservoir releases:

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/release_channel_levels.shtml

Reservoir levels:

http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/drinking_water/maplevels_wide.shtml

 
March went out like a lamb and April came in like a pissed off honey badger. The rain we got was a little less than .25" which is better than nothing ( I suppose). The historical average flow for the Susky at Harrisburg (April 5th) is 64,200 CFS. Currently it's 23,600 CFS. Just shows how dry it's been from above Binghamton to the bay. Looks like snow from Poconos through New England with additional precip coming late week. Keep 'em coming

Mark,
Good luck predicting the release on that system. They use so many charts and tables to dictate flow, I'm not sure they even know which is right. They might agree to a 400 CFS release on June 1st or June 15th......rarely happens. You might get 250 one day, 600 for 3 days, 400 on the 5th day and then you wake up to 2850 CFS. No rain, none in the forecast but they started dumping. A mere 4 hours later, they drop the release to 99. Half the riverbed is left to bake in the mid day sun and then they crank it from 99 to 1500 to wash away everything they just killed. If you go for 3 days, you'll get jacked on 2 of them. Best to learn all the other rivers.....the fishing is just as good.
 
Kray - but it won't go up before June 1st right ? they have an agreement in place with NYC to maintain the reservoir to a certain 70% until June 1st - that's what I was told by the Lodge owner last May.

 
It shows the value of snow pack and or spring run-off. There is on run-off as yet and there certainly is no snow pack.
 
Chaz wrote:
It shows the value of snow pack and or spring run-off. There is on run-off as yet and there certainly is no snow pack.
Click to expand...

The effect of "snow pack" on surface water in Pennsylvania is exaggerated, I think. This is not the west, where vast reaches are normally covered in deep snow at high elevations and where the melt is potentially a slow, long melt. Snow in PA is only about 10% of the liquid that falls.

A few feet of compacted snow is still just a few inches of liquid. It adds a bit to the flow rate of streams, but the bulk comes from rain and runoff it creates. There is some truth to late spring and late fall being a time of groundwater recharge. Ground is not frozen and plants are not suckling up the water during both those time frames, so snow melt can end up in the ground.

What we are seeing now in many streams are base groundwater flows, which are normally masked by runoff from April showers.
 
salmonoid wrote:
Chaz wrote:
It shows the value of snow pack and or spring run-off. There is on run-off as yet and there certainly is no snow pack.
Click to expand...

The effect of "snow pack" on surface water in Pennsylvania is exaggerated, I think. This is not the west, where vast reaches are normally covered in deep snow at high elevations and where the melt is potentially a slow, long melt. Snow in PA is only about 10% of the liquid that falls.

A few feet of compacted snow is still just a few inches of liquid. It adds a bit to the flow rate of streams, but the bulk comes from rain and runoff it creates. There is some truth to late spring and late fall being a time of groundwater recharge. Ground is not frozen and plants are not suckling up the water during both those time frames, so snow melt can end up in the ground.

What we are seeing now in many streams are base groundwater flows, which are normally masked by runoff from April showers.
Click to expand...
Snow pack is part of run-off, we have neither. To compound things March was over 2 inch below normal in rainfall. The next week is supposed to be rainy, so we'll see what we get.
It's an El Nino year, and we're still looked in to that cycle.
The only reason I mentioned snow pack was because in March we usually have a rain on snow event to bring streams up, we had neither.
 
Chaz wrote:
The only reason I mentioned snow pack was because in March we usually have a rain on snow event to bring streams up, we had neither.
Click to expand...

That's true. But a "rain or snow event" is not snow pack. True snow pack provides water directly from snow melt over a much longer period than we get from a foot (or less) of snow melting over a few days. A cycle of heavy snow and following melt is only equivalent to a couple inches of rain at best here in PA. Not only that but when it does melt, the ground is often still partially frozen so that the melt just flushes out in a period of high water and does little to recharge ground water.

What we need is either frequent rain over the winter and early spring or frequent smaller snowfalls which melt several times before spring, and then frequent rain during the spring. Whatever the combination, we need wet weather, not just a pile of snow.

Now consider this. Say we have a cold snowy winter and get 3' of snow piled up. A "snow pack" per se. The whole time that snow is accumulating, none of it is making it into the ground or into stream flows. So what do you have? Lots of snow and very low stream flows. Ok, so that snow melts sometime in March. What do you get? Maybe a week of high flows (or flooding) followed by a couple weeks of ideal spring flows. Then your into the middle of April or so.

Now what do you do for May and June?

Throwing around the term "snow pack" is just so irrelevant to PA. The states that have true snow pack are seeing benefits from it from April through July and beyond. The only thing that matters in PA is the last three weeks. Beyond that, that water is long gone. The only exception being our limestoners, but even then we need long periods of generally wet weather to bolster their flows over the long run.

Kev
 
But.....3' of snow on a North facing slope and the low sun angle will stick around much longer even with temps in the 40's. That may slow melt into the small freestones, bogs, beaver dams etc. giving us a prolonged effect. It may not be the same as what you'd see in Idaho or Montana but it can help us for sure.
 
When was the last time we legitimately had 3' if snow over a signifucant area if the state? Outside of lake effect areas no one gets anywhere near that much snow on the ground at one time in this state with any regularity. If you have more than 6" on the ground after the mid point if march, most people would say that's a lot. I chose 3' of snow to illustrate the fact that even an extreme amount of snow for Pennsylvania cannot have the same affect as a much more significant amount of snow at much higher elevation like we see in the west.

Significant lingering snow on the ground is just not common enough here to rely on it or speak of it as if it us THE determining factor in stream flows for the spring.
 
Finally getting a soaking rain in lower Susky Valley !!!
 
What is so difficult for everyone to understand that we are below avg. rainfall and flows for this time of year. I think everyone understands things can change in a heartbeat but it is a bit worrisome how dry and low the flows are for early april. There is virtually zero snow pack in PA either. It has nothing to do with adapting to fishing conditions it's just an observation kray made and if it doesn't have you concerned then so be it but I am concerned as well. Things can change but for right now at this moment it is not good.
 
This sure isn't a pretty picture for anyone with plans to fish on Saturday.

Saturday: 1-3 inches of snow. Winds will increase during the afternoon. Thunder possible. High 39F. Winds WNW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.

 
i was planning on fishing too. Not in that
 
You guys crack me up. You realize there are above and below average years, which is how you get an AVERAGE. If you can't catch fish in low water or varying condition, too bad, that leaves more for me. It's raining all this week and snowing etc... water levels will be fine. It is normal for them to rise and fall. Get a grip and stop worrying so much hahaha. We aren't Cali, we don't have drought conditions or anything close. Actually everything I have been fishing recently has been fine. A little below average but I actually prefer that on big water. Spruce and the Little J and yellow creek have been fishing fine.
 
You realize there are above and below average years, which is how you get an AVERAGE.
Click to expand...
Whaaat? So, that's how they do it. Thanks for clearing it up for all of us.


If you can't catch fish in low water or varying condition, too bad, that leaves more for me.
Click to expand...
I voice concern about flows well below average, abnormally dry spring (so far) and you translate that into "I can't catch fish in low or varying conditions". Exactly how does one pull that out of what I typed? Say I had a screen name 'sightnymph', talked about sight fishing shallow water with unweighted nymphs and posted that low spring flows were concerning? That was my screen name 9 yrs ago and really have no issues fishing low flows.....just concerned about the grass seed I'd put down.

 
3-6 inches of snow predicted here (near the D on Saturday and cold temps). We got a lot of rain today so hopefully that and the melt will help the water.
 
Frankly, I'm glad to see the low stream flows. It should provide good dry fly conditions during the early season hatches. Unlike last year, when all of tje larger streams were unfishable during that period.
And at a time when stream temps really aren't a concern.
I'm really looking forward to using some grannoms and hendricksons that went unused last spring.

 
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