Not a pretty picture for the start of the season

[evw659]

You realize there are above and below average years, which is how you get an AVERAGE.

Whaaat? So, that's how they do it. Thanks for clearing it up for all of us.

I think what he is saying is that an average is simply a calculation from a collection of extremes. Pretty simple. So basically, when you see "below average" flows, or "above average" flows, you are just seeing normal standard deviations from the average. It happens almost every year. We have high water periods and low water periods. Were in a low water period right now. Do I think the extremes are getting more extreme? Perhaps, but then again im not a climatologist.

 

[ROVERT]

The USGS site displays medians, not means, on the discharge graphs. Medians do a reasonable job of throwing out the outliers. If you look at the means listed in the chart below the discharge graph it will give you both values. The median will show a discharge that you can typically expect on a given day. The mean will show a number that can be impacted quite heavily by high (or low in some cases) water events.

 

[krayfish2]

Kevin,
Looked at the gauges last night. You must have gotten hit a bit harder than we did. Stilesville release of 110cfs and 1770cfs at Hale Eddy so the feeders must be full.I was getting worried that the bows might not be able to access or exit feeders for spawning. Looks good for now and hope the rains keep coming. Sleet squawl as I type this.

Bass spawn in Susky also dependant on good flows and it surely could use it

 

[geebee]

Kray - a bit late for bows to spawn no ? I thought up in NH, Maine that they spawned in late March, are they later on the D ?

 

[pcray1231]

When was the last time we legitimately had 3' if snow over a signifucant area if the state?

January? lol. Southern tier is a significant portion, I guess. We got that in a sudden burst of snow.

Anyway, I do agree with you regarding "snowpack" being overused. Always been interested in this dynamic. I don't think snowpack matters as much as "ground melt". And that's probably a stronger effect on how saturated the ground was when it froze in late fall/early winter than it is when the snow melts off.

Snow in PA typically melts off before the ground thaws. Hence, it runs off. That's when you get that "half inch of slick mud on top of frozen underlayer" effect in the early spring. It's a big factor for pH spikes but probably not for groundwater recharge. Really, any precipitation that falls before that ground thaws doesn't have a huge effect outside of some recharge zones with permanent water in limestone (karst) regions.

But that frozen ground is saturated and frozen soil, and when it finally thaws, very little runs off and the vast majority seeps into the groundwater table giving you your spring boost. Again, a function of what it was like in the fall when it first froze, rather than what fell on top of it in winter.

And after the ground thaws, but before weeds and grasses grow and trees leaf out, any precipitation event adds a lot of groundwater. The ground is in that "just thawed" spongy type deal and not yet hardened on top, and no shallow roots are overly active soaking up moisture.

After the weeds and grasses and leaves come, a light rain just gets soaked up by roots and doesn't make it to the groundwater, and a heavy rain is usually VERY heavy from spring thunderstorms and the majority runs off. But a good all day soaker can really help out, anytime of year. You just don't get all that many of those by the time thunderstorm season rolls around. You get quick and heavy hitters instead. That's not good for groundwater. Would rather have an inch of rain spread over 6 or 7 hrs than 2 inches in 30 minutes.

 

[krayfish2]

Mark,
Oneonta University study showed utilization of feeders from early March through late April. Many mouths are blocked by gravel bars so getting in / out would be near impossible. With the higher flows, they'll run, get it done and slip back out in 2-5 days. That river system m bumped up enough that access for spawners shouldn't be an issue. A good percentage of browns spawn mid river but the bows still use the feeders so it's crucial to have good flows.

The Susky is already having a lot of rock outcroppings exposed and islands that would normally be good spawning / nursery waters. I'm guessing the shot of water will reach us shortly and take a few weeks to dissipate.

I'm going to need a bush hog and bailer to cut my yard. I got some good golf course fertilizer and may have been a little heavy handed in the application. Lol

 

[evw659]

The USGS site displays medians, not means, on the discharge graphs. Medians do a reasonable job of throwing out the outliers. If you look at the means listed in the chart below the discharge graph it will give you both values. The median will show a discharge that you can typically expect on a given day. The mean will show a number that can be impacted quite heavily by high (or low in some cases) water events.

Good point, thanks for clarifying. The median is of course a better indicator in this case on what discharge rate you should expect for a given day (because outliers have minimal effect on it). Currently for some stations 90% of the observed flow rates for the given day are above what the current rate is, but I don't see that as reason to panic, even through the statistics tell you the opposite. The lack of snowmelt and our weather pattern just hasn't been conducive lately for flows closer to or above the median. I think that will change. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if half the map was blue in the next 3 weeks. just my opinion.

 

[geebee]

krayfish2 wrote:
Mark,
Oneonta University study showed utilization of feeders from early March through late April. Many mouths are blocked by gravel bars so getting in / out would be near impossible. With the higher flows, they'll run, get it done and slip back out in 2-5 days. That river system m bumped up enough that access for spawners shouldn't be an issue. A good percentage of browns spawn mid river but the bows still use the feeders so it's crucial to have good flows.

interesting, up north bows spawn straight after ice out in 2-5 days as you say, often followed by a run of Landlocks who are there solely to gorge on the eggs.

after spawning, the bows are ravenous and there can be tremendous fishing, when they will chase down streamers swung at the main stem or lake junctions. its quite the thing to see picky bows bow wave on a fly, but I guess that would be frowned upon up on the D lol.

anyhoo, I'm very glad they got a decent shot of water up there as I really hope to connect with one of those acrobats this summer.

 

[RLeep2]

While certainly not determinative of all season quality of flows the way it is out west, I think you'll find that in the area of PA that is within the reach of the Great Lakes snow shield that flows are impacted by the annual melt for a longer period than some of you seem to think. After an optimal heavy snow/gradual melt winter, I think the impact can be seen through May and sometimes well into June.

The reason is pretty simple, actually. The annual melt does not entirely run off like poop through a goose, even when the ground is still frozen. The woods are full of relatively level depressions that serve as catch basins and allow quite a bit of the melting/melted snow to be captured and percolate down into the water table. A lot of these depressions are found right in the flood plain of the stream and a lot more are in the flats on top of the ridges. But there is no shortage of them right on the flanks of the ridges wherever the topography or incline allows. Most are pretty well shaded which delays evaporation to some degree and allows more of the water to percolate down.

Is the overall impact major? I dunno.. Somebody would have to define "major". I'd call it significant and suggest that you can see the difference in flows after a wet vs. dry winter for quite a while and sometimes all the way into early Summer.

I guess the other thing I'd mention is that the snow shield off the Lakes is bigger than a lot of folks think. It isn't just an Erie-Crawford-Venango-western Warren and northern Mercer county thing, although these are the places that really get dumped on. Annual average PA snowfall is influenced by the Lakes in a meaningful way at least as far east as Galeton and south to DuBois and beyond. Especially when you begin factoring in increasing elevations as you go east and also south to some degree. It is fairly common for Lake enhanced precip that falls as rain in Girard or Greenville to be snow in Bradford or Ridgway.

All in all, while PA snowfall in the Lake-enhanced shield is not long (as in all season..) term determinative in stream flows, it is (IMO) a closer cousin to having money in the bank than it is to throwing dollar bills out the window while driving across I-80..... It can have a noticeable and meaningful impact on groundwater reserves and hence flows.

 

[BrooksAndHooks]

Dont think I quoted you kray, so not sure why you are insisting that I was calling you out or translating anything you said. Don't get your feelings hurt.

As far as the statistics go, it sounds like some people on here posting are worried. Just because you have one dry week in the year doesn't mean much. All the flows around me were low too, but within normal range. If we have a solid month of that, it might be something to talk about.

I'm not wasting time blowing smoke. Good to see some educated discussion going on in here now though.

 

[Troy]

Anyone still think we don't need rain? I would love to hear the arguments. We have Sulphurs hatching on the Little J and the water is already reaching the 60's. Not normal anyway you try to spin it.

Supposed to have rain today, but once again nothing materialized so far.

 

[FarmerDave]

Relax. I'm sending some rain your way.

 

[geebee]

the forecast on wunderground shows 1/2" rain due next week every day from Sunday through Wednesday.

I'm more worried about too much water on spring Creek the following weekend, rather than too little.

 

[troutbert]

I'm for rain.

Tell me what I should do to make this happen.

Write an email to my congressman?

Kill a goat and burn it on a pyre, and dance around with suitable incantations?

Or what?

 

[Troy]

geebee wrote:
the forecast on wunderground shows 1/2" rain due next week every day from Sunday through Wednesday.

I'm more worried about too much water on spring Creek the following weekend, rather than too little.

I wouldn't worry much about too much water on Spring. It still fishes well. Even if we get 2 inches of rain Spring will drop fast especially since it is low.

Troutbert,
Whatever you can do for the cause is good. If that means chopping your typing hand off, have at it. No need to be a smartass.

We need rain period and it makes me laugh at all who don't seem to be a little concerned. I'm just bringing this topic up again because there has not been any major rain since the topic was started. Water temperatures should not be in the 60's on the limestone creeks in April. If this continues into summer we are in trouble. I realize that there is still time, but I am not too optimistic.

Troy

 

[wildtrout2]

Troy wrote:
We need rain period and it makes me laugh at all who don't seem to be a little concerned. I'm just bringing this topic up again because there has not been any major rain since the topic was started. Water temperatures should not be in the 60's on the limestone creeks in April. If this continues into summer we are in trouble. I realize that there is still time, but I am not too optimistic.

Troy

Agree. ^ This is the worst I've seen it this early in the season.

 

[Chaz]

I was at our camp opening weekend and water levels were excellent, if anything Pine Creek was on the high side to safely wade. Rain is in the forecast for the next week. I'm not concerned.

 

[Dave_W]

Yeah, things are low for April but not close to being anything to worry about at this point. I looked at some of my local freestoners yesterday and they look fine.

On the bright side, such low levels makes warm water rivers easy to fish. The Juniata is at summer levels right now. Unfortunately, the pre-spawn season is pretty much over and I regret I wasn't able to do more bass fishing over the last month.

 

[Troy]

You all must be fishing some streams that it just keeps raining over. The streams around me look like hell. Algae getting on your flies and not needing any weight in April. That usually happens in the summer. It's not summer. I never knew red dots on the USGS site is a good thing. I had it wrong over the years. I'm worried. I don't want trout season to end early. I hope you all are right. I will gladly eat crow.

 

[tomitrout]

Averages and all that, it sure would be nice to see the pendulum swing the other direction sometime soon. Was out in Michaux SF on Sunday and the trails felt parched, dusty and dry....definitely not 'mid spring' conditions, plus theres was a small 5-10 fire up along the AT last night that luckily was contained. Kudos to the crews on that one, that could've gotten ugly. Trees are finally leafing out though, so that should help with temps, but I bet those trees are also awfully thirsty right about now....we sure could use a good soaking rain.