Annual Spring Jamboree - May 17-19, 2013 - Seven Mountains Campground

[pcray1231]

Way too early weather report. Couple of ways to look at this.

Optimist: Not too bad. Rain is all light and showery, rather than steady. It's all on Thursday and Friday, none over the weekend. Doesn't look to be any great amounts to mess up streams too much. And clouds are good for fishin.

Pessimist: Cold and wet. Sucks for the tenters! Long term forcasts usually peg systems too early, so Thursday/Friday is likely to move back to the weekend. Also, while this picto forcast looks like light, spotty rain, that's just hedging bets a little. If you look up the actual models, that's a awfully big blob, and it's pretty dark green looking too! This is, afterall, the jam, what else would you expect?

 

[mooney4]

I don't know, P. I don't put to much into the forecasts these days. But that forecast seems pretty much a maybe for any kind of rain before or after the original dates. Roll the dice!!

 

[David]

I am officially out... I'll have to send some chili up with Bruno (although I'm not sending the IC amber!)

 

[zenherper]

I'll be there later Thursday evening with a couple buddies who aren't on PAFF. It will be beer o'clock by the time we are there and set up. We will be on a stream Friday however, and wouldn't mind hooking up with some other guys.

 

[ryguyfi]

David wrote:
I am officially out... I'll have to send some chili up with Bruno (although I'm not sending the IC amber!)

Sad news. I'll catch a few dozen fish for you.

 

[Swattie87]

Swattie, Wiss, and Wiss's brother...up Thursday evening after work, probably too late to fish though. Staying til Sunday.

Loose plan is smaller freestoners during the day, break for wings/beer, and some combo of Spring/Penns/Kish in the evenings. Tag alongs welcome.

Good to have pcray on the forecast...we'll get daily updates as the Jam approaches no doubt! Bottom line, if it pours the little streams will fish well, if it doesn't the big ones will fish well. Regardless of the amount of rain, there is a 100% chance there will be plenty of beer.

 

[bikerfish]

FWIW, there is some decent music thurs evening at the elk creek, I was thinking of fishing penns at Coburn thurs evening, then heading over to have a couple and listen to some tunes, if anyone cares to join me.

 

[IdratherbePhishing]

Im down for live music!

 

[csoult]

I'm in Al

 

[mattwolf]

Im in. I will be setting up my camper Friday morning. Looking forward to doing some fishing and having some soda pops around a camp fire.

 

[pcray1231]

What a difference two days makes, lol. Old forcast vs. new. If I could, I'd like to make the new one my final answer!

 

[wgmiller]

Love that forecast!!!


Will there be a gear swap/sell table this year? I have a few things that could probably be of use to someone else...

 

[Phish_On]

wgmiller wrote:
Love that forecast!!!


Will there be a gear swap/sell table this year? I have a few things that could probably be of use to someone else...

Me too.

 

[turkey]

David wrote:
I am officially out... I'll have to send some chili up with Bruno (although I'm not sending the IC amber!)

Is this a trick again? You said you were out last year too. I expect to see the school students van pulling in to 7 Mtns on Saturday.

 

[Bruno]

I need a place to sleep on SAT night and a dog

 

[Bruno]

done deal

 

[pcray1231]

Regarding weather, I was playin around with picto-graph forecasts above. Took a closer look yesterday evening of the actual models. Still too early to put much faith in the forecast for next weekend. But we're getting into relatively solid range for the lead up, which can give you an idea of stream conditions at the start.

Lots of rain today through Saturday. Some rain/storms today, showers still around tomorrow, and then it looks like a deluge Friday night through Saturday morning. Massive green blob, steady rain. Another bout late Saturday. Could easily be 3+ inches total from now until early Sunday. Sometime early on Sunday, the last will pass, and from then through Wednesday at least we'll have high pressure and bluebird skies.

Picture massive blowout this weekend with 4 or so dry days to recover before jammers begin to arrive late next week.

From there the uncertainty begins. Next system rolls in late next week. But no model agreement on details. How wet is it? Will it be scattered storms or a big green blob? Where's it goin, who gets what? Just too early to know. It could blow things out again, or be virtually nothing but some clouds.

 

[afishinado]

pcray1231 wrote:
Regarding weather, I was playin around with picto-graph forecasts above. Took a closer look yesterday evening of the actual models. Still too early to put much faith in the forecast for next weekend. But we're getting into relatively solid range for the lead up, which can give you an idea of stream conditions at the start.

Lots of rain today through Saturday. Some rain/storms today, showers still around tomorrow, and then it looks like a deluge Friday night through Saturday morning. Massive green blob, steady rain. Another bout late Saturday. Could easily be 3+ inches total from now until early Sunday. Sometime early on Sunday, the last will pass, and from then through Wednesday at least we'll have high pressure and bluebird skies.

Picture massive blowout this weekend with 4 or so dry days to recover before jammers begin to arrive late next week.

From there the uncertainty begins. Next system rolls in late next week. But no model agreement on details. How wet is it? Will it be scattered storms or a big green blob? Where's it goin, who gets what? Just too early to know. It could blow things out again, or be virtually nothing but some clouds.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

[pcray1231]

That's the CMC - aka Canadian model. Of all of the major models, that animation is the easiest to understand for the layperson. But keep in mind it's just one model. There are dozens. And in the long range, that one is historically less accurate than the GFS and Euro (though the CMC did handle Sandy better than any other model).

You don't become confident about what will happen until they all show basically the same thing. But, through Sunday, they all show pretty much the same thing. so.....

 

[Swattie87]

Lead up sounds strikingly similar to last year. Everything fished well after having a few days to come back down, except Penns, which was fishable, but borderline IIRC. Spring was flowing well with a little color and the mountain freestoners were charged up and full of water. Blow em' out this weekend I say.