Recent Rain

Modeling guidance ran late last Friday/ early Saturday AM suggested a solution similar to what is playing out.I ve attached two model runs from then ,.as well as two of the most current model runs. Have
Having rode around the ridges from Wilcox to Haneyville last weekend it was noticeable how local some of the heaviest rain was. At my cabin there was 2" from Tuesday through Saturday. Five miles away there is a ridge that received in excess of 2" on Thursday and then again Saturday. In those locales,what kind of rainfall rate will it take to cause flash flooding? Maybe.25-.50" an hour?
 

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2.5" in Franklin. But the Rynd Farm gage only showed 1.3 inches, which is fine; better actually.
Syl
 
Even when there are dips or even crashes in fish populations caused by natural events or acute pollution events, as long as there are some adults remaining the populations generally respond in a short time period with a big year class and/or excellent survival of juveniles due to little competition for abundant resources. Think Susquehanna SMB.
 
Looking at the USGS site this morning, unless you’re in the Laurel Highlands or Bedford County, everybody can relax at this point. With the forecasted rain from Debby remnants, most streams will probably have enough water by this weekend (even with no more rain) to safely get to the cooler temperatures in September.

Outside of perhaps the Laurel Highlands, I think 2024 will go down as a “good” Summer for wild Trout populations. Not great, like 2018/2019, but a solid “good”.
 
Over 2.5" in my rain gauge this morning.

One advantage to getting all this rain later in the summer is the SMB spawn. The big rivers have been low and stable since spring and this bodes well for a good YOY cohort. I'd rather get this rain in August than June.
 
Dave_W said:
Over 2.5" in my rain gauge this morning.

One advantage to getting all this rain later in the summer is the SMB spawn. The big rivers have been low and stable since spring and this bodes well for a good YOY cohort. I'd rather get this rain in August than June.
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Agreed. If forecasts hold true, another 4" coming to Central PA on Friday. It's looking good for our trout streams leading into late summer/fall for fishing.
 
Lower Pike County and many areas in the Poconos did not get much, maybe .5 in at most. The heavy rain was very localized.
 
wildtrout2 said:
Just saw an updated forcast for the end of the week, and they're saying 3"-5" in the central/NC part of the state. We'll take it.
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Dear wildtrout2,

The Susquehanna in Vestal NY is forecast to hit 21 ft which is a moderate flood. By the time all that water plus the additional 3 to 5 inches forecast for almost the entire state of PA gets to Harrisburg smallmouth fishing will be dead until after Labor Day, maybe longer. It's not like Spring when trees really need water and can suck it up. I had stressed trees dropping leaves in my yard now.

Regards,

Tim Murphy
 
Yeah, 2-3” won’t cause flooding, but closer to 5” possibly could. Models have trended up in the last 24 hours.
 
RAIN: we had 12 inches here in 24 hours. LOL GG
 
FWIW: if you wat a really big trout fish after the rain when the cricks get a greenish tint to them. If you have a stocked stream/ marginal waters that have those big boys that are old holdovers will be on the feed. GG
 
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