Recent Rain

wildtrout2 said:
Just saw an updated forcast for Pa, and we're in for a lot more rain than originally predicted this week. The USGS map is going to have a lot of dark blue and black dots covering most of the state. Gotta be careful what you wish for.
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That forecast has changed a lot and will continue to do so. We'll see where we're at in a couple days. The ground is very dry so at least the 1st couple inches will be immmediately soaked up
 
Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way now. Would be also great to see cooler nights.
 
wildtrout2 said:
Just saw an updated forcast for Pa, and we're in for a lot more rain than originally predicted this week. The USGS map is going to have a lot of dark blue and black dots covering most of the state. Gotta be careful what you wish for.
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Dear wildtrout2,

If the rain they are already calling for this week comes through and we get anything substantial from Debbie it will be Labor Day before the Susquehanna in Harrisburg is fishable again. Clearfield to Williamsport will get bombed again today and that will take care of the West Branch of the river. The whole northern tier looks like it will get pounded. It takes at least 2 to 3 days for that water to get to Harrisburg.

Regards,

Tim Murphy
 
bringthepain said:
That forecast has changed a lot and will continue to do so. We'll see where we're at in a couple days. The ground is very dry so at least the 1st couple inches will be immmediately soaked up
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Or run off.
 
Theres already a large cluster of dark blue gauges in ncpa on the usgs site. Wunderground upped their prediction for my neck of the woods to 2.5 inches tonight. Of we get that and then another 2-4 later this week things might get interesting in the greater west branch watershed
 
Drought or flood. We can't seem to get an average amount of precip to keep the streams and rivers flowing at a decent level through the season.
 
afishinado said:
Drought or flood. We can't seem to get an average amount of precip to keep the streams and rivers flowing at a decent level through the season.
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Prior the recent rains we were largely having an “average” year flows wise for much of the Summer. It’s been warmer than average, but not really much drier…Perhaps marginally so, but nowhere near drought levels. Prior to this recent wetter pattern, most gauges (not all, but most) in the state were somewhere in the second quartile for this time of year versus their medians. Meaning about 1 year in 3 or so was dryer than this year. Several recent years, notably 2016 and 2022, were FAR dryer than this Summer.

Water that is too high for ideal Trout fishing early in the season in April is statistically “normal” for PA. Flows too low for ideal Trout fishing in August is also “normal”, statistically speaking.

Hoping my work and home schedules align to let me get a couple days out following this run of wet weather. It’s a good thing this time of year. Enjoy it.
 
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Swattie87 said:
Prior the recent rains we were largely having an “average” year flows wise for much of the Summer. It’s been warmer than average, but not really much drier…Perhaps marginally so, but nowhere near drought levels. Prior to this recent wetter pattern, most gauges (not all, but most) in the state were somewhere in the second quartile for this time of year versus their medians. Meaning about 1 year in 3 or so was dryer than this year. Several recent years, notably 2016 and 2022, were FAR dryer than this Summer.

Water that is too high for ideal Trout fishing early in the season in April is statistically “normal” for PAs. Flows too low for ideal Trout fishing in August is also “normal”, statistically speaking.

Hoping my work and home schedules align to let me get a couple days out following this run of wet weather. It’s a good thing this time of year. Enjoy it.
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It depends on where in PA you live

1722967326574.png

This week we are into a flood watch with the front going through and the ruminants of Huurcan Deb coming up the coast.
 
afishinado said:
It depends on where in PA you live

View attachment 1641237176
This week we are into a flood watch with the front going through and the ruminants of Huurcan Deb coming up the coast.
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Agree in part, disagree in part. Everything in yellow on that map is within what I would consider “normal”, and lines up with that second quartile for flows. Dryer than the average or median, but I wouldn’t consider it to be all that dry, if one out of every three or four years is dryer. Once you start talking one in 10 years or more, then you’re starting to talk pretty dry (orange and red on the map). But that’s limited to Somerset County, and parts of a few of its neighbors.

Beyond that, yeah, the state is large enough that the thunderstorm complexes that deliver most of our Summer rain don’t hit everywhere, and/or hit places unevenly. Why I said “most” and not “all”, which I think is fair and accurate, and supported by the above map and the USGS streamflow map.

Most folks seem to get the most concerned about NCPA streams. NCPA has had a very “average” year. And will likely trend to wetter than average after this next round of rain events.
 
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salmo said:
Let's hope that we don't get a Hurricane Agnes type event. That hurricane in June '77 dropped so much rain that the Suss was 12.5 feet above flood stage at Jersey Shore. For decades after when crossing the Mighty Suss on Rt. 44 west at the iron bridge you could see the flood marks on the second floor hotel atop the banks. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/pennsylvania-water-science-center/news/50th-anniversary-hurricane-agnes
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Hurricane Agnes happened in 1972. I'm positive on that one. It really messed my home town up.
 
Swattie87 said:
Most folks seems to get the most concerned about NCPA streams. NCPA has had a very “average” year. And will likely trend to wetter than average after this next round of rain events.
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I'm one of them. And, that's because the NC region often gets the short end of the stick with thunderstoms, and rain events generally. Not to mention, it's home to some of the best wild trout streams in the entire state. It has been an average year up there this season though. Bring the rain!
 
wildtrout2 said:
I'm one of them. And, that's because the NC region often gets the short end of the stick with thunderstoms, and rain events generally. Not to mention, it's home to some of the best wild trout streams in the entire state. It has been an average year up there this season though. Bring the rain!
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I was the same way, but after seeing the numbers of fish that survived 2016 and 2022, Kettle flowing at less than 10 cfs for multiple weeks in a row, I don’t worry that much anymore. Stretches of some of the larger, popular, tribs to Kettle were bone dry those years. Streams with 25 or 30 square mile watersheds. The fish figured it out though.
 
Swattie87 said:
I was the same way, but after seeing the numbers of fish that survived 2016 and 2022, Kettle flowing at less than 10 cfs for multiple weeks in a row, I don’t worry that much anymore. Stretches of some of the larger, popular, tribs to Kettle were bone dry those years. Streams with 25 or 30 square mile watersheds. The fish figured it out though.
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I remember you mentioning that you saw plenty of trout in certain pools using a flashlight at night during some very low stream levels. It really is amazing how they survive super low levels.

Potter is getting rain as we speak.
 
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Swattie87 said:
I was the same way, but after seeing the numbers of fish that survived 2016 and 2022, Kettle flowing at less than 10 cfs for multiple weeks in a row, I don’t worry that much anymore. Stretches of some of the larger, popular, tribs to Kettle were bone dry those years. Streams with 25 or 30 square mile watersheds. The fish figured it out though.
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This is the ticket. Don't worry. The fish have been doing their thing and surviving for far longer than the number if years I've been here to worry about them.

My worrying does nothing, and the trout know the way.
 
wildtrout2 said:
I remember you mentioning that you saw plenty of trout in certain pools using a flashlight at night during some very low stream levels. It really is amazing how they survive super low levels.

Potter is getting rain as we speak.
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Yeah. And I had really really good wild Trout fishing in NCPA, and everywhere really, during the super cool and wet Summers of 2018 and 2019. Those fish were either first hand survivors of 2016, or direct descendants of them.

I’ve slept easier since then. If they can survive Kettle at 6 cfs, they’re fine at the 30 or 40 cfs it bottoms out at on the “average” Summer.
 
wildtrout2 said:
I remember you mentioning that you saw plenty of trout in certain pools using a flashlight at night during some very low stream levels. It really is amazing how they survive super low levels.
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It is amazing how they survive, the ones that do survive.

During severe droughts and floods, populations are sometimes cut in half. This is what PFBC survey data shows.
 
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