Liquid gold is coming...

[Swattie87]

Why the median is a more effective tool than mean when it comes to measuring flows. Though neither is ideal.

The only ideal measurement is the current flow, coupled with historic boots in the water knowledge of that stream or watershed.

But yeah, limestone watersheds are a bit more stable and hold their water longer after periods of rain. Freestones, it’s all about what’s happened in the last 2 weeks or so. Kettle is a great example, nearly all forested, and it holds its water better than any other large freestoner I know. But Kettle can be at 1000 cfs (blown out), and 2 weeks later be at 150 cfs, far lower than ideal. (300-450ish is ideal IMO for main stem Kettle.) What have you done for me lately type of deal.

 

[wildtrout2]

It's always been that way. Weather patterns hold for a while then change. Air masses, jet streams, NAO, ENSO, and all that. An average is an average between extremes, it doesn't actually happen very often.

You don't think extremes are happening more frequently in the last 20 years, or so?

 

[ROVERT]

Why the median is a more effective tool than mean when it comes to measuring flows. Though neither is ideal.

Median is better because it places less importance on the outlier events. Let's say a stream is virtually always between 300 and 700 cfs on a given day in April, the median will be in that range. If there was a flood event one year and the flow was 9,000 cfs on that day, the mean could be outside of what is typical flow.

 

[DaveKile]

I have never found things to be normal (my words). Weather patterns and water levels are always wildly moving up and down. The spring weather can pretty volatile with warmer moist air from the south pushing into the north colder air. We get a variety of conditions as most state's do.

Extreme weather is pretty common thing and the record for Max Precip in May, for example, was in Quakertown in 1894. Other extreme records for May go back 128 years. Most of the other monthly state records of min max temps, min max precip and snowfall are held before 1963, over 60 years ago.

Hottest day in June...1933 at 107 degrees in Sharon. I'm not cherry picking. The full dataset is below. At a quick glance, only about 22% of the extreme records are held after 1964. 78% are from 1877-1963. I picked 1963 just as a point going back 60 years. No special reason.

My favorite nugget of trivia: On July 17, 1942, a great flood developed over the Smethport area, resulting in an estimated 34.50" of rain--in just one day, including 30.60" in only six hours, setting a world record.

Here is the link to the full records at the Pennsylvania State Climatologist at PSU.
https://climate.met.psu.edu/data/state/staterecords.php

Attached it the PDF

 

[greywolf]

Rain over Potter now and the levels are going up.

It really poured where I was fishing Sunday in Potter County. Stream went up at least 6 close to what you normally see this time of year.

 

[pcray1231]

You don't think extremes are happening more frequently in the last 20 years, or so?

Locally? Statistically, no.

There are areas of the world where things are changing, and statistics prove it out. Locally its pretty minor so far. The average temp has arguably gone up a degree or two, we have slightly more record highs than typical and slightly fewer record lows, and there have been more above average days than below. The number of days with precipitation has not changed, nor the average time gap between precipitation events. Total yearly precip may have gone up a touch, so that would mean when it rains we get a little more than we used to, but "when it rains" hasn't changed. Need another couple decades to see if these are trends. But, probably.

 

[djs12354]

Thought briefly about hitting the Lackawanna after church this morning, but gave up on that idea quickly. The river is up a foot and a half from yesterday's level. I will wait for the levels to drop and wading to be a little safer.
I know we needed some rain but did we have to get all at once?

 

[Fish Sticks]

Feast or famine. Can’t remember last time just got slow and steady rain that didn’t cause these streams to blow out like they bought sushi from a gas station.

 

[jifigz]

Feast or famine. Can’t remember last time just got slow and steady rain that didn’t cause these streams to blow out like they bought sushi from a gas station.

That's disgusting......do gas stations really sell sushi?

Remember the hot dog roller machines? Hot dogs that have been rolling on there for days. Lol. I'd eat one.

 

[Fish Sticks]

That's disgusting......do gas stations really sell sushi?

Remember the hot dog roller machines? Hot dogs that have been rolling on there for days. Lol. I'd eat one.

Oh yea they do, got a friend who stopped at one was starving before a date. Ran from the bar and left the gal sitting there and matched CFS of the breeches in some tiny little bathroom, she was gone when he got back.

 

[Swattie87]

Oh yea they do, got a friend who stopped at one was starving before a date. Ran from the bar and left the gal sitting there and matched CFS of the breeches in some tiny little bathroom, she was gone when he got back.

That’ll happen.

 

[Fish Sticks]

That’ll happen.

This friends life is an entire book of stories like that. It’s actually one of the really tame ones.

 

[pcray1231]

Oh yea they do, got a friend who stopped at one was starving before a date. Ran from the bar and left the gal sitting there and matched CFS of the breeches in some tiny little bathroom, she was gone when he got back.

If she runs from that, wasn't worth it anyway.

 

[riverwhy]

Need to change the thread title to liquid brown.

 

[sixfootfenwick]

Need to change the thread title to liquid brown.

*Invasive* liquid brown 🤣

 

[CRB]

It has been raining and snowing(big flakes Monday and Tuesday) up here along the lake since Last Thursday.
Looking forward to global warming.
😀

 

[trout48]

Poconos 5 1/2 inches in two days had a mote around the house.

 

[wildtrout2]

Thankfully, the NC region has finally gotten some decent rain to help the situation. Every little bit helps.

 

[jifigz]

Yeah, it just kept on raining here in Central PA. Much needed rain and this will keep our cricks flowing nicely for a while. Desperately needed that to recharge the groundwater.

 

[BradFromPotter]

Thankfully, the NC region has finally gotten some decent rain to help the situation. Every little bit helps.

looks pretty good up here.