Boy that cried wolf or justified concern?

FlyGuy9 said:
This is very concerning. East Branch Brandywine almost hit 70 degrees today and the state stocking has been canceled/postponed. Afraid more of this could be coming in SEPA.
Click to expand...
Wow. I know that stream and fish whenever in D town can’t believe warming in mid April
 
Winter/Spring of 2012 was low precip and warm IIRC. I recall epic compound hatches 2 weeks "early" in central PA and roving gangs of popper eating smallies on the Allegheny when the levels would normally be too high to consider that.

And green drakes in May.
 
I've been waiting to post something on this, but I waited based on the usual "don't worry" the fish will be fine. Now somebody else posts it and everyone agrees. I'll try next year and see what happens! I'm with Wildtrout2 on this one.
 
JeffP said:
I've been waiting to post something on this, but I waited based on the usual "don't worry" the fish will be fine. Now somebody else posts it and everyone agrees. I'll try next year and see what happens! I'm with Wildtrout2 on this one.
Click to expand...
Dear Jeff,

Looking at the map 75% plus of all streams in the State are at 25% or less of their historic flow for this date. Far more than half of those are at 10% or less. This is the peak time of the year for plants to blossom and trees to bud. Meanwhile, I don't even have a stinking dandelion in my yard in Harrisburg, and they are my main ground cover year-round.

It's been awful for months, but it's really awful now. And the typical cycle of 2 to 3 inches of rain in one downpour per week will do nothing to alleviate the problem. We had that cycle all through the Winter around here until about 3 weeks ago. The streams would rise quickly, be brown for a day or two and fall just as fast. With the garbage hardpan around here we need an inch or two of rain spread out over 3 or 4 days to even begin to make a dent. And that isn't on the horizon.

I miss the days in late March and early April when 3 days of steady rain made the ground smell like mud and bring worms out. Worms are halfway to China now around here and digging fast to get there.

Regards,

Tim Murphy
 
After Saturday up here in NWPA cold, rain, and chance of snow at night.
Weather this time of year is always dependent on snow cover and sun radiation . The sun is always warm this time of year. only 2 1/2 months away from the summer equinox.
Trees and grasses are sucking up LOT OF MOSTURE AS GREEN REPLACES BROWNS.
 
I have a buddy 30 minutes north of Roscoe NY. We've always used the forsythia as a marker to the start of the hendricksons. It's accurate within a day or three. The typical time frame from my forsythia blooming and his is 12-14 days since he is 3.5 hours north. His bloomed on 4/3 and he said it is about 10 days before the ones at higher elevations bloom. Mid April around the Beaverkill and they typically don't go until 4/28 - 5/3. Based on that, low water and hot weather, id expect to see hatches 2 weeks early. Drakes might even be winding down by 5/20. This is strange but I remember a few years back when I showed up 5/1 to fish Hendrickson hatch and the fly shop told me they were done, caddis were gone, March browns and grey fox wrapped up the week before I left there. 7 days of no hatching for the trip
 
Gonna be a really **** poor season unless things shift. Penns and the other central PA limestone/freestoners will hit the 60’s easily once the trees start leafing out (of course TCO will have the temps in the high 40’s for weeks on their stream report). Those flows should be 600-1000 cfs currently. Suggest getting out and enjoying while you still can because this spring might just get skipped and go straight to summer.
 
Nocktavius said:
Gonna be a really **** poor season unless things shift. Penns and the other central PA limestone/freestoners will hit the 60’s easily once the trees start leafing out (of course TCO will have the temps in the high 40’s for weeks on their stream report). Those flows should be 600-1000 cfs currently. Suggest getting out and enjoying while you still can because this spring might just get skipped and go straight to summer.
Click to expand...
Dear Nocktavius,

I'm getting ready to sit around local streams and drink beer and just **** in them.

It's awful right now.

Regards,

Tim Murphy
 
TimMurphy said:
Looking at the map 75% plus of all streams in the State are at 25% or less of their historic flow for this date. Far more than half of those are at 10% or less. =
Click to expand...

That's not what the map shows when looking at the pretty colored dots. The map shows what percenTILE the flows are in for today, not perceTAGE of flow within the stream. The % associated with each color is not representative for % of stream capacity.

It is not an absolute measurement of stream flow. Also, it is only relevant to data collected for the current day of the year from past years.

While the colored dots are a reasonable way of roughly determining stream conditions, they are misleading, particularly in the warm months when rain, or lack of it, can quickly change stream flows. Even then anglers need to be familiar with the streams in question or need to review past flow data (ideally multiple years worth) to get an accurate idea of stream condition.

Here's an example:

The LJR currently has an ominous orange dot. Meaning it is in the 10 to 24 percentile for this day in April.

OH MY GOD IT"S DRYING UP!!!! AHHH, THE TROUT ARE GOING TO DIE!!!!

Except the flow is currently 278 CFS and that is a a fine flow for fishing.

If it was August the dot on the LJR would be blue and far less scary, in fact many people would be cheering the excellent summer conditions. This is because the dot color/percentile is only relevant to past data for this day of the year.

I'm not trying to dismiss poor conditions on some streams, but those stupid dots tell you very little beyond whether the stream is usually higher or lower on a particular day.

Here is some required reading:

https://help.waterdata.usgs.gov/faq/surface-water/what-is-a-percentile?searchterm=percentile
 
PennKev said:
That's not what the map shows when looking at the pretty colored dots. The map shows what percenTILE the flows are in for today, not perceTAGE of flow within the stream. The % associated with each color is not representative for % of stream capacity.

It is not an absolute measurement of stream flow. Also, it is only relevant to data collected for the current day of the year from past years.

While the colored dots are a reasonable way of roughly determining stream conditions, they are misleading, particularly in the warm months when rain, or lack of it, can quickly change stream flows. Even then anglers need to be familiar with the streams in question or need to review past flow data (ideally multiple years worth) to get an accurate idea of stream condition.

Here's an example:

The LJR currently has an ominous orange dot. Meaning it is in the 10 to 24 percentile for this day in April.

OH MY GOD IT"S DRYING UP!!!! AHHH, THE TROUT ARE GOING TO DIE!!!!

Except the flow is currently 278 CFS and that is a a fine flow for fishing.

If it was August the dot on the LJR would be blue and far less scary, in fact many people would be cheering the excellent summer conditions. This is because the dot color/percentile is only relevant to past data for this day of the year.

I'm not trying to dismiss poor conditions on some streams, but those stupid dots tell you very little beyond whether the stream is usually higher or lower on a particular day.

Here is some required reading:

https://help.waterdata.usgs.gov/faq/surface-water/what-is-a-percentile?searchterm=percentile
Click to expand...
278 cfs for that river this time of year might be great news to the folks who want easy wading and a good top water bite but that’s simply not a good flow rate for April. These fisheries depend on a mixture of runoff and limestone spring influence to maintain their cold water throughout the heat of the summer- hence why they’re considered hybrid freestoner and limestoner rivers. If you watch Bill Anderson’s presentation you’ll see that a lot of the karst plumbing that feeds the system has a cycle time of 3-6 months meaning the essentially snowless winter and rainless early spring have failed to charge the system to adequate levels. The cold water isn’t going to go away entirely, but the flow rate is attenuated. Basically the same situation as a tailwater that typically provides a certain springtime flow rate suddenly being cut to 1/3 because the reservoir is critically low. And the next 10-15 days look fairly dry as well (at least as far as the needed 2-4” rainfall to help things into the later season is concerned). We’re cruising toward a drought here and it’s earlier than perhaps we’ve seen in a decade. Of course the fish will survive, but it’s gonna be an awful shame to have to put the fly rods away in mid May or only fish at the butt crack of dawn while the best hatches are just ramping up .
 
I'm not disputing any of that. All I'm pointing out is that the percentile system and it's little colored dots are comparative and not absolute.
 
Nocktavius said:
278 cfs for that river this time of year might be great news to the folks who want easy wading and a good top water bite but that’s simply not a good flow rate for April. These fisheries depend on a mixture of runoff and limestone spring influence to maintain their cold water throughout the heat of the summer- hence why they’re considered hybrid freestoner and limestoner rivers. If you watch Bill Anderson’s presentation you’ll see that a lot of the karst plumbing that feeds the system has a cycle time of 3-6 months meaning the essentially snowless winter and rainless early spring have failed to charge the system to adequate levels. The cold water isn’t going to go away entirely, but the flow rate is attenuated. Basically the same situation as a tailwater that typically provides a certain springtime flow rate suddenly being cut to 1/3 because the reservoir is critically low. And the next 10-15 days look fairly dry as well (at least as far as the needed 2-4” rainfall to help things into the later season is concerned). We’re cruising toward a drought here and it’s earlier than perhaps we’ve seen in a decade. Of course the fish will survive, but it’s gonna be an awful shame to have to put the fly rods away in mid May or only fish at the butt crack of dawn while the best hatches are just ramping up .
Click to expand...
There is always hex, white flies, poppers and smallmouth.
 
Over the past 20 years there are plenty of posts on Paflyfish of When Will It Rain usually followed up with When Will It Stop. Also we get When Will It Stop Raining followed with When Will It Rain.

I’m not saying we don’t need the rain, we do. Historically we usually get plenty of rain between now and July. Clearly we have not gotten very much lately. I blame California. But, we are not in a drought yet and likely gonna be a dryer spring. Odds are this year the state will get it’s average rainfall of 37”-47”. It just won’t be a lot right now.

I’m not panicking, but personally I’m starting on building my ark.

Screenshot 2023 04 14 at 75720 AM
​
 
DaveKile said:
Over the past 20 years there are plenty of posts on Paflyfish of When Will It Rain usually followed up with When Will It Stop. Also we get When Will It Stop Raining followed with When Will It Rain.

I’m not saying we don’t need the rain, we do. Historically we usually get plenty of rain between now and July. Clearly we have not gotten very much lately. I blame California. But, we are not in a drought yet and likely gonna be a dryer spring. Odds are this year the state will get it’s average rainfall of 37”-47”. It just won’t be a lot right now.

I’m not panicking, but personally I’m starting on building my ark.

Click to expand...
you can throw this out. Fla got over two feet of rain since the 8th
 
krayfish2 said:
Just short of mid April and the stream flow map is almost all red. It's still early with cool nights but the low flows already have me a little worried. Yes, we'll get 4" of rain in the two days leading up to the JAM but there's a lot of time between now and then. Anyone else starting to get a little pucker factor working?
Click to expand...
I used to love seeing the Lehigh hover around 500cfs before I had a boat. Could wade anywhere and access some hard to reach spots. Now I am annoyed because I don't feel like banging and dragging.
 
The guy who puts up signs for our company had a medical emergency and I've had to pick up his job as well as mine since January. I've put in at least 50 signposts from Sunbury to the Maryland line. If You dig down 18 inches, it's dry and powdery the entire way. Virtually no moisture in the soil. Local weather guy says the immediate area is at a 4" deficit for the year. The positive side is the humidity has been low for the last couple of warm days 😁.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Montana Angler Fly Fishing
Montana Angler Fly Fishing
Harman's North Fork Cottages


Real Time Data From
the USGS Site

Share this page

Back
Top