2016 North Central PA Summit 9/30-10/2

[Moosehead_Belle]

Sasquatch,
PM sent.
Moosehead_Belle

 

[The_Sasquatch]

Chaz, I'll hit you up soon!
Moosehead, I got it, sent back.

Moosehead reminded me, we have to eat! I know I have a bottle of the Glenlivett at camp, but we may want more to eat!

Let's make some plans for the food.

 

[pcray1231]

By the way that couple of inches of rain in SE PA was courtesy of Julia interacting with a front. Everyone got the front but the extra rain down this way was topically enhanced. We got a good soaker here but I know not everyone did. Overflowed my boys sandbox. Probably about 3". My lawn is soft. Springs are flowing strong.

Keep the prayers coming on Karl. It's been working but he needs more.

Karl has a smidge of a window to continue west now. The windshear didn't decrease as predicted. Karl is being torn apart and weakening. A weaker storm moves faster, getting further west before that cold front dips down and tries to grab it. And a weaker storm doesn't "feel" the trough as much as a stronger storm. Maybe, just maybe, a still too far north front misses picking up weakened Karl. Result would be continuing west, more time to get it's act together and perhaps up the east coast when the next trough comes along. If one doesn't, into the gulf.

It's still unlikely but the chances are now better than they were. The NHC still seems rather convinced of a recurve and fish storm. But Karl is already completely outside of their "cone" and shows none of their predicted northward direction, nor strengthening. Headed due west. NHC might be looking at a rare miss here.

If you see it stall, throw in the towel. When it's starts up again it'll be north. Keep on chugging!

 

[afishinado]

 

[pap-paw]

Bring your own water. I have been here since labor day and have not been able to find many fish. Kettle and young womens are dead no water.

 

[pcray1231]

afish, as I said:

The NHC still seems rather convinced of a recurve and fish storm. But Karl is already completely outside of their "cone" and shows none of their predicted northward direction, nor strengthening.

Since then they have moved the predicted path westward (kind of had to, since it was already west of their previous path). But it's supposed to be moving due northwest by now. It isn't. They're calling it west-northwest, but uh, if there's any northward movement at all it's very very slight. Still chugging west.

Yeah, the chances are it still gets grabbed by the cold front and taken up and out as your NHC forecast shows. They're pretty good. But Bermuda wasn't even in the cone a few days ago and now it's the center of it. And yet the storm keeps weakening, staying fast, and moving westward when it's supposed to be strengthening, slowing, and turning northward. We'll see I guess. Maybe Karl's just a late bloomer. But he's acting like he wants to do his own thing rather than what he's supposed to do.

 

[krayfish2]

Go rogue Karl. The Delmarva is beautiful this time of year !

 

[The_Sasquatch]

7 day rain predictor on weather.com has rain moving through the area on Wed. Keep your fingers crossed!

 

[pcray1231]

After giving a glimmer of hope, Karl has begun the northward turn. It'll be a fish storm after all. Sorry all.

Love the NHC's discussion page from yesterday:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/al12/al122016.discus.028.shtml

the low-level center moved westward
far away from the convection, and currently it is hard to say if
Karl possess a closed circulation or not. Assuming that it still
does, the maximum winds are estimated generously at 30 kt...

Global models have totally failed so far in forecasting....

The initial motion is also highly uncertain, giving that we have
been following the low-cloud swirl defining the alleged center.

 

[The_Sasquatch]

Well, it at least looks like we may need some rain jackets for the event:

 

[pcray1231]

I think I'm out for the jam. Sorry folks.

 

[The_Sasquatch]

I'm shocked ;-)

Sorry to hear that, though, Pat.

 

[Swattie87]

I'll be up that way this coming week...coming back Friday though, so I'll miss seeing you boys.

I'll take a wazz in Kettle a couple times to try to get a bump in the flows for you. :-o

 

[AFISHN]

Talked to Les yesterday...he's still iffy.I asked him to call me if he doesn't go, so I can bring up the scrapple.

 

[turkey]

Ok, a week out. Who's in? How about a list of attendees? Copy, paste and add your name if your going to Denton Hill (or don't. I'm just jazzed)

Turkey

 

[The_Sasquatch]

The people I know for sure:
Turkey
Andy (me!)
Skybay (probably there already, putting up the Christmas tree)
Moosehead
Tim Robinson (and maybe wife?)
Afishin (sounds like)
Bikerfish (plus a few friends possibly)
Roger

Those are the "definites". And rain on Monday.

 

[TimRobinsin]

We will leave Lancaster round 11 a.m. and will be at the cabin by supper.

The Robinsin/Eberly Clan will be there with Tim's Triple Threat Chili and my wife's sweet and smokey pulled pork BBQ. Crock pot party this year. let's do this, Friday can't get here fast enough!

 

[gfoledc]

I made pickled eggs and beets and will make sloppy joes

 

[bikerfish]

I'll be leaving thurs morning, fishing my way there, getting to cabin late afternoon, just in time for happy hour!

edit!! The forecast is looking awesome, rain and drizzle all weekend at this point! Gonna be a great weekend for goretex!! AND, hopefully great for catching brookies!

I'll also bring some breakfast stuff, maybe some breakfast casseroles, those seemed to go good last year, and some other traditional stuff, potatoes, eggs, snausages,etc.

I'll stop by the brewery warehouse and see what North Country beer I can get a deal on.

 

[bikerfish]

Another note, for lunches, we are always out on the stream somewhere, usually split into a couple different groups, sometimes meeting up, sometimes not. We usually just bring lunch meats and cheese, bread or buns, condiments, etc and tailgate it somewhere in the forest. Just wanted to let any new comers know the general plan.
Dinner is back at the cabin, pepper gas treatments free of charge!!