We haven't had a good fall run since around 2008 or before. I've fished Jersey with a fly rod since 1999. There used to be beaches full of peanuts for weeks at a time. 100 fish nights on rainbait. It just isn't there anymore. There aren't as many stripers. It was never a matter of "will I catch fish today?" It was a matter of "will I catch many big fish today?". Peanut blitzes lasted for days. I think it peaked around 2005-2006 and has been in decline ever since. Sandeels are great. We used to have them, as well, but not until after the herring run in December. It used to be that, from about October 15-20 to right around X-mas, you could pretty much guarantee you were going to catch a few fish any time you went, if you knew what you were doing and the places best to do it. Now, crickets. I used to get about half a dozen each fall better than 20# from the beach on the fly rod, and another dozen on plugs. There were days around Thanksgiving in 2004 or 2005 when I caught 200 stripers in three days at the North Jetty on a fly rod. Nights where I completely wore out a new fly line in Bradley Beach in 2002. I used to catch more stripers in a night from shore than I do in a year, now. If something doesn't change and change quick, you might as well just save those 8-10 weights for musky and tarpon.