PA Fish Commission trout fishing survey results >

[Fish Sticks]

There's a book called How to Lie With Statistics. That kind of extrapolation is probably covered in there somewhere.

License sales are going down over time lol theres no slight of hand or lies there. It’s literally two axis not a chi squared or regression plot. Its a reality everyone here can verify

 

[troutbert]

License sales are going down over time lol theres no slight of hand or lies there. It’s literally two axis not a chi squared or regression plot. Its a reality everyone here can verify

Yes, license sales are going down. and no one has disputed. But license sales won't be going to zero.

You have to be careful about extrapolating on trends. Suppose a baby weighs 6 pounds at birth. Over time its weight increases.

If you graph the increase in weight and extrapolate on the trend, eventually its weight would go to "infinity and beyond." On the graph. But that doesn't happen in reality.

 

[CRB]

The population of Erie County, Pennsylvania in 2022 was 267,689, 4.7% down from the 280,809 who lived there in 2010. For comparison, the US population grew 7.7%

The share of the population of the state of Pennsylvania that is 65 and older increased from 15.4% in 2010 to 19.6% in 2022.


Is this influencing license purchases?

​

 

[Fish Sticks]

Yes, license sales are going down. and no one has disputed. But license sales won't be going to zero.

You have to be careful about extrapolating on trends. Suppose a baby weighs 6 pounds at birth. Over time its weight increases.

If you graph the increase in weight and extrapolate on the trend, eventually its weight would go to "infinity and beyond." On the graph. But that doesn't happen in reality.

No one ever said it would be going to zero. All that was said is that is a trend line formed on the data till 2022……which has that slope

 

[Fish Sticks]

The population of Erie County, Pennsylvania in 2022 was 267,689, 4.7% down from the 280,809 who lived there in 2010. For comparison, the US population grew 7.7%

The share of the population of the state of Pennsylvania that is 65 and older increased from 15.4% in 2010 to 19.6% in 2022.


Is this influencing license purchases?

​

I don’t get the relevance of this post. No where is license purchases included so the answer is I don’t know and neither do you. Theres no data related to fishing there

 

[troutbert]

No one ever said it would be going to zero. All that was said is that is a trend line formed on the data till 2022……which has that slope

The graph in post #24 shows the trend line going the whole way down to zero, soon after the year 2100. That's only 77 years from now.

 

[caddisflyer]

I was born in 1960 and most of my earliest days of fishing besides fishing for carp and suckers etc. was for stocked trout. I still spend about half my time fishing for stocked fish but have added wild trout and of course bass and other warmwater gamefish to my menu. My satisfaction with a lifetime of fishing mostly in PA is very good. It's kinda like with presidents, I honestly do not think my life changed for the better or worse under any one administration. Dysfuntional at times, sure. But overall things keep chugging along. Game Comm., Fish Comm, sure their may be problems but the overall seems to be kinda okay.

 

[CRB]

I don’t get the relevance of this post. No where is license purchases included so the answer is I don’t know and neither do you. Theres no data related to fishing there

just showing picking data points don't show the trends that are in the background.
Times are constantly changing and fishing will never go to zero.
Happy Thanksgiving and I'm grateful we are able to fish for stocked and wild trout in Pennsylvania .
Past mineral extractions, industry and lumbering have not been kind on our streams.

 

[Fish Sticks]

The graph in post #24 shows the trend line going the whole way down to zero, soon after the year 2100. That's only 77 years from now.

And I explained thats just a line drawn through data the trend line is not data.

 

[Fish Sticks]

just showing picking data points don't show the trends that are in the background.
Times are constantly changing and fishing will never go to zero.
Happy Thanksgiving and I'm grateful we are able to fish for stocked and wild trout in Pennsylvania .
Past mineral extractions, industry and lumbering have not been kind on our streams.

Lol we are talking about license sales graphed against time. Actually picking those data points do show a trend in license sales…..over time. Happy TG and I am grateful PFBC running out of money to stock invasive species

 

[Acristickid]

Survey shermury!

64% of respondents loved catching the native Browns in Pennsylvania.

87% can’t tell the difference between a brown or a rainbow.

82% never fish more than 300 yards away from the their vehicle (probably why they bitch about access) Hah.

Carry on.

 

[nymphingmaniac]

You mean when they used $20,000 of voluntarily donated wild trout funds to put logs in an 800ft section of stream that is almost entirely privately stocked as a pay-to-play fishery while the state knows full well the entire stream should be class a with no stocking? Absolutely zero defense of that move. Maybe harpster and beaver could have donated the $20k since they're the ones abusing the resource for profit.

I don't know enough about the project, such as its precise location, but I can arrive at reasons that have a positive impact on public fishing. Water flows downstream. If this section is a significant source of bank erosion and sediment, that sediment flows into the J and negatively impacts trout habitat. Spruce creek is a spawning tributary of the J. It is not usual for NGOs like clearwater conservancy, western conservancy, Chesapeake Bay foundation etc to do projects on private lands that reduce sediment that impact areas downstream. One example is halfmoon creek in Centre/huntingdon counties. Halfmoon creek is spawning stream and is a tributary of Spruce creek and a major source of sediment that works its way into Spruce and ultimately the J. Another Spring Creek TU (and partners) conduct projects on private lands on Cedar run, a headwater of Spring Creek. The goal is to reduce sediment to improve the Spring Creek fisheries.
Many of the projects are aimed at reducing erosion and adding habitat is secondary (while we are at it...).

As for Disneyland paying for it- do you think they are concerned about downstream? Likely not. But, may be yes, IDK.

 

[troutbert]

You mean when they used $20,000 of voluntarily donated wild trout funds to put logs in an 800ft section of stream that is almost entirely privately stocked as a pay-to-play fishery while the state knows full well the entire stream should be class a with no stocking? Absolutely zero defense of that move. Maybe harpster and beaver could have donated the $20k since they're the ones abusing the resource for profit.

The project you're talking about was on Spruce Creek on PUBLIC land owned by the PFBC, not on private land, correct?

 

[afishinado]

Fishing license sales in PA have been on a steady decline for decades.

Is it population changes, demographics or other reasons for this?

Checking the overall trend, fishing license sales in the entire US has been rather steady >

Fishing: number of licenses US 2021 | Statista

This statistic shows the number of fishing licenses in the United States from 2000 to 2021.

www.statista.com

 

[Fish Sticks]

The project you're talking about was on Spruce Creek on PUBLIC land owned by the PFBC, not on private land, correct?

Yea I think he is arguing that most of the stream the public cannot even fish and harpster and beavers stocked fish are using that habitat paid for by the “wild trout stamp” money. Are their wild invasive brown trout in there, sure. Is this in the spirit of what that money was used for no. Also it probably serves as an advertisement for those disgusting operations when anglers see good looking posted water just beyond where they can ect.

 

[Fish Sticks]

Fishing license sales in PA have been on a steady decline for decades.

Is it population changes, demographics or other reasons for this?

Checking the overall trend, fishing license sales in the entire US has been rather steady >

Fishing: number of licenses US 2021 | Statista

This statistic shows the number of fishing licenses in the United States from 2000 to 2021.

www.statista.com

I would really like to know how many people get taken to the elbow to elbow circus that invasive stocked trout create. Its ironic because many people have tried to create a narrative that this is all for the children but i have talked to so many adults who either don’t fish or got into it later in life because their first experience was someone next to them saying “watch your line kid” or being elbow to elbow which is not relaxing. Someone I work with on conservation initiatives told me his uncle took him out and first day was just a cussing storm that ended with some angler across from him getting pushed in the water.

 

[Fish Sticks]

This is what we teach kids is “fishing” no wonder they aren’t coming back.

 

[tomgamber]

 

[silverfox]

The project you're talking about was on Spruce Creek on PUBLIC land owned by the PFBC, not on private land, correct?

yes. That 800ft section is public property. Oddly, when it was donated to the commonwealth it was subsequently surveyed and found to be Class A. So is the Harvey stretch. So is Warriors Mark Run. The entirety of spruce creek should be classified as Class A. It isn't. That allows Fantasy Land Inc.™ to stock mutants. Those mutants end up in the public water too. Last time I went to the cavern section it was absolutely full of stocked rainbows and browns.

I have several problems with that whole ordeal, which isn't the point of the thread, but it was brought up by someone else.

• The cavern section is already Class A, so why "improve" it?
• The entirety of spruce is likely already Class A. Does it need improved further? Even if that 800ft benefits the rest of the stream, why?
• There is so little public access on the stream, using publicly donated funds there seems like a slap in the face. The two public sections combined are only a little over half a mile of water.
• The commission knows that spruce shouldn't be stocked. Improving the habitat while that's going on is a waste of money. Like putting new tires on your car when the engine is about to explode.
• There are so many more wild trout streams that are fully on public property that need help that using it on spruce is insulting (IMO).
• Anyone who would have visited the cavern section during the fall before the "improvement" project would've found countless redd in the fine gravels and gentle/consistent flows in that section. I haven't been there personally this fall, but a friend was and said it was virtually devoid of fish. I'm sure they're under the lunker bunkers, but they aren't using it for spawning now.
• If work needed to be done on the stream, why didn't beaver or harpster donate any money? It was all public/tax dollars. Again, yes, the 800ft is public, but the other 98.5% (actual % of private ownership) isn't, and the people who benefit from the stream financially should've kicked in a few bucks since they're the ones who have profited from it for decades.

I'd also like to point out that I was a big cheerleader for the voluntary permits. I defended PFBC when a bunch of other folks on here suggested they would squander/misuse the funds. I ate crow. They did exactly what others said they would do, and I learned my lesson.

 

[Silent Ocelot]

82% never fish more than 300 yards away from the their vehicle (probably why they bitch about access) Hah.

Carry on.

More like 300 feet. These folks want to bond with nature, but nature better make itself more convenient for them regardless of cost and environmental impact. It sickens me that man thinks he has the right to alter nature to make it more convenient for himself, the arrogance! The fish are there, go out and get them! The perpetual state of lazy sportsman constantly infuriates me, but it leaves me with more water to fish.

...but I love what you do man. Let me know if you ever go through with publishing that book on your expeditions. It's something I definitely want to read even if it is simply a recap of your adventures. I look forward to your posts about your adventures, it's one of my favorite things to read on here.