Enough Rain?

[Dave_W]

Based on the current stream report, Pickering Creek is blown out. For what it's worth, it appears that at least some of the SEPA watersheds got plenty of precip.

My rain gauge here in Adams county had less than a quarter inch in it last night.

 

[afishinado]

Dave_W wrote:
Based on the current stream report, Pickering Creek is blown out. For what it's worth, it appears that at least some of the SEPA watersheds got plenty of precip.

My rain gauge here in Adams county had less than a quarter inch in it last night.

Same for the SE region. The flow for streams in SE show a very modest rise yesterday and back down to below normal flow for the season.

 

[wgmiller]

Too much, too soon. That's why the big rivers show high levels - because most of it runs off into the tribs. We need several all-day soakers to even make a dent. With a general lack of snowpack this year and infrequent soaking rain events, things aren't looking good for spring/summer...

 

[Van_Cleaver]

We got 3/4 of an in. in the last storm and it barely moved the needle in most SE streams. Or if it did they went right back down again. Hard to get excited about stream fishing when there is so little water.

 

[sarce]

The big rivers are flowing higher because they drain the northern part of the state, where there has been far more precipitation over the last month.

Here in VA, the Potomac is at a weak 5,000 cfs. Less than half of normal flows, and there is no snowpack to melt in the headwaters. The shad run is fast approaching, and without a ton of rain and higher flows, the fish will be able to swim easily up the main channel and not be very accessible to fly anglers from shore. Higher flows push them toward the banks - so I'm hoping for rain to help me out there. I am gonna try not to get too worried about the trout stream health until the end of April, if we aren't getting more frequent soaking rains by then, look out...

 

[afishinado]

sarce wrote:
The big rivers are flowing higher because they drain the northern part of the state, where there has been far more precipitation over the last month.

Here in VA, the Potomac is at a weak 5,000 cfs. Less than half of normal flows, and there is no snowpack to melt in the headwaters. The shad run is fast approaching, and without a ton of rain and higher flows, the fish will be able to swim easily up the main channel and not be very accessible to fly anglers from shore. Higher flows push them toward the banks - so I'm hoping for rain to help me out there. I am gonna try not to get too worried about the trout stream health until the end of April, if we aren't getting more frequent soaking rains by then, look out...

^ Quite true. We do have time for things to turn around. No need to panic or write things off as of yet.

 

[krayfish2]

I started a similar panic last March and pcray said "It's way to early to determine that we'll have low flows /drought come August". Well, we did have drought conditions for most of the state and haven't recovered 12 months later. Let's hope it's not a repeat of last year. Looks like the next system may have less wind and hopefully more rain with it.

 

[Troy]

krayfish2 wrote:
I started a similar panic last March and pcray said "It's way to early to determine that we'll have low flows /drought come August". Well, we did have drought conditions for most of the state and haven't recovered 12 months later. Let's hope it's not a repeat of last year. Looks like the next system may have less wind and hopefully more rain with it.

I was also panicking about the early low flows last year on here. Some people thought we were being a little dramatic. In this case I am not happy to be right. SE needed rain badly then and still does. Looking ahead on the extended forecast for March it looks like there are chances for rain. If that materializes is a different story. It seems like storms don't want anything to do with this part of the state.

 

[salmonoid]

wgmiller wrote:
Too much, too soon. That's why the big rivers show high levels - because most of it runs off into the tribs. We need several all-day soakers to even make a dent. With a general lack of snowpack this year and infrequent soaking rain events, things aren't looking good for spring/summer...

Snowpack is a western thing. In PA (and VA), we don't have "snowpack". It's much more realistic to look at the monthly precipitation totals when talking about currently low flows. Excluding a few higher outliers (Laurel Highlands and lake effect off of Lake Erie), PA would average between 20-50 inches of snow in a winter. Average PA snow-liquid ratios have been between 10-13, so using the more conservative average, that is between 2-5 inches of liquid total that snow will generate. That does not get released slowly or steadily. A small percentage of it will, but a lot of it will melt in one event, so in many ways, it's akin to a heavy thunderstorm that dumps an inch of rain but runs off quickly. And if snow is staying on the ground, it is not recharging much groundwater, because the ground is frozen. When it does melt in a warming event, the ground is still frozen.

Average rainfall in PA per month is maybe 3.25". And we're running between 1-2 inches behind each month for the past half year or so. The general lack of precipitation is the issue, not whether the precipitation is frozen or melted when it falls from the sky.

Powerpoint of Snow-Liquid info, see slide 7.

This is snowpack, where your're talking 40-50 inches of liquid waiting to be released. Or the amount of snow recorded in Alta, UT the winter before I spent part of a summer there for field camp (754" of snow, who knows 70, 80, 90? inches of liquid?).

 

[sarce]

Good points Salmonoid, I agree. I know people who worry about the water being too high from snowmelt after 2" of snow. Think the ratio is often forgotten, that's only 0.2" rainfall equivalent, AKA a few hours of light rain.

Weather geek talk:
The weather pattern this winter has featured a raging fast west to east jet stream for the most part. So low pressure passes to the north with trailing weak fronts and a few hours of rain down through the southern half of the state. When the rain comes from the west, it gets dried out going over the mountains. We need the jet stream to slow down so storms can pick up moisture from the ocean and throw it back against the mountains, that's how you get more than a half inch of rain at a time. Until that starts happening, it is reasonable to be concerned about the flows - but there is still time for things to change.
/ weather geek talk

 

[Dave_W]

Half an inch in my rain guage overnight and looks like more precip for the cental and lower half of the state depending on storm track today.

 

[dryflyguy]

Thunderstorms and heavy downpours all night here too - with a lot more still coming.
That should put a lot of water back into the streams.

 

[Troy]

Berks County is getting dumped on as I type. There will be another round later today too. This will help. Hopefully, it absorbs into the ground.

 

[krayfish2]

Nice soaker here this morning with big puddles in the poor draining areas. Very good news. Looks like the second hand might track a bit further north hitting SC, and Poconos. That would also be greatly appreciated.

 

[DaveS]

I washed my car.

Your Welcome.

 

[krayfish2]

I don't mean to inconvenience you but can you wash it again every week for the next 4 weeks?

 

[tomitrout]

I don't mean to inconvenience you but can you wash it again every week for the next 4 weeks?

That's been my plan, although it took a week for Mother Nature to really notice...

 

[jifigz]

It's definitely a good soaker here in Central PA and the radar looks like it will keep it up for quite a while. If a certain stream isn't too blown out I'm going to try to make it out for some streamer fishing here at some point today in the rain.

 

[Van_Cleaver]

As usual most of it missed Southeast PA; less than 1/4 in. here. The next one will give us mostly wind and probably a brief heavy rain. I hope I'm wrong but that has been our pattern for too long. Still some rain is better than none and we are gradually creeping up but still need some steady rains with a little longevity.

 

[jifigz]

Van_Cleaver wrote:
As usual most of it missed Southeast PA; less than 1/4 in. here. The next one will give us mostly wind and probably a brief heavy rain. I hope I'm wrong but that has been our pattern for too long. Still some rain is better than none and we are gradually creeping up but still need some steady rains with a little longevity.

I wouldn't discount the rain quite yet. If it moves straight east you'll get it. Radar shows it is east of me now but the band still covers basically the whole state from south to north.