Wulff-Man wrote:
Assuming the experts did a masterful job of designing a study that accounts for the possibilty of 1 out of 50 anglers taking their limit repeatedly over a short period of time in a few streams, 7 brook trout per stream mile is an average. Is this 7 trout per season, or what? It seems very little per season. But it's an average, so it's hard to get a feeling for it. Because it's an average, it still could mean that some streams near populated areas could be cleaned out, while those in remote areas have little or no harvest. Just saying that you have to be careful with averages.
Yes, you have to be pretty careful when you are smushing the data together from unlike streams and creating an overall average. Supposedly 7 brookies per mile were harvested and the streams contain an average of 70 legal brookies per mile. But some of the streams have very low numbers of legal size brookies per mile. The data is in the report. Some streams have numbers like 23, 11, 5 or even 0 brookies per mile.
Even worse some of the streams used in creating the average that have high numbers of legal brookies per mile, are under special regulations!
Lyman Run and Slate Run for example. And Kettle Creek was under special regs beginning in 2004, the year they took the data.
So these population numbers, taken from special regs streams, inflate the average numbers used.
We've been discussing brookies here, but the same thing is true when looking at brown trout. They also used population data from some special regs streams when coming up with their average wild brown trout populations. For example Saucon Cr, Spring Cr, Penns Cr, Rauchtown Cr, and Slate Run. Some of these special regs areas have populations that are WAY above what's typical (which supports the argument for special regs BTW). But they are using the data from these special regs streams to inflate the overall averages for wild brown trout pops per stream.
So they're are saying that special regs aren't necessary, but they are using population data from special regs streams to support the argument that the trout population is thriving under general regs!
More generally, the streams they took the harvest data from, and the streams they took the population data from, are not the same set of streams! You can read through the study and see what I mean.
They are taking HARVEST data from one set of streams. And POPULATION data from a different set of streams, some of which are special regs streams, then comparing the harvest levels vs population data.
So, those of you with a science background, what do you think? Is this as bad science as it appears or am I missing something?