BrookieChaser
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The Henlopen pier just reopened about a month ago. Ah, nature.
The animated map was interesting.
The animated map was interesting.
DaveKile
Administrator
Staff member
Well you have me worried now. We just got 3.4" inches dumped on us in about two hours. I'm not sure what to think if the heavy stuff isn't coming for a few more days.
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Fishidiot
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2.6" in my rain gage here in Gettysburg, and it seemed spread out a bit better over time last night.
greenghost
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3.48" here in the "Burgh"
gulfgreyhound
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What I see here there are 4 lows that will impact the NE . The one that passed by here dropped 2+ inches over 2 days. Stay safe everyone. G G
pcray1231
Well-known member
The last of which could have some spice to it.....
FWIW, the latest trends are stronger, slower, and southwest. Meaning, landfall in the Carolina's. Then it just kinda hangs out. Would spare us from the wind, delay our rain, and spread it out over a longer time. So, good, for us.
Things would get biblical in the Carolinas. Models are printing 20+ inches of rain there, with Cat 2 or 3 hurricane winds at landfall, only slowly diminishing but lasting 3+ days.
The culprit is the stubborn blocking HIGH pressure off of Maine/Nova Scotia. Just stops up everything, and keeps it from moving north or out to sea, so it's just stuck with nowhere to go. What we got here is a traffic jam.
FWIW, the latest trends are stronger, slower, and southwest. Meaning, landfall in the Carolina's. Then it just kinda hangs out. Would spare us from the wind, delay our rain, and spread it out over a longer time. So, good, for us.
Things would get biblical in the Carolinas. Models are printing 20+ inches of rain there, with Cat 2 or 3 hurricane winds at landfall, only slowly diminishing but lasting 3+ days.
The culprit is the stubborn blocking HIGH pressure off of Maine/Nova Scotia. Just stops up everything, and keeps it from moving north or out to sea, so it's just stuck with nowhere to go. What we got here is a traffic jam.
krayfish2
Well-known member
The grass pretty much came back to life overnight. We did have periods of heavier rain but here around Harrisburg it was spread out nicely.
Thanks for the update Pat as I haven't gotten a look a the latest models. I'm still thinking this will dump several in he's on us but may be spread out as you'd suggested.
Time to check in with my pop that lives in Myrtle, just across the NC line.
Thanks for the update Pat as I haven't gotten a look a the latest models. I'm still thinking this will dump several in he's on us but may be spread out as you'd suggested.
Time to check in with my pop that lives in Myrtle, just across the NC line.
pcray1231
Well-known member
Trend reversed, now east, which means a more northerly landfall, or none at all. Model mayhem right now, with models ranging from landfall in the Carolina's all the way up to Maine, and a few just raking the coast with no actual landfall at all.
Even without a hurricane, the Carolina's are poised to get a crapload of rain. Major flooding will happen.
Us? Well, it'll be rainy nomatter what, but if we don't take a hurricane hit, the biblical levels of rainfall stay south of the Mason Dixon Line. We'd be talking around 3-4" along the Delaware/Maryland border, less as you go west and north. That's still a lot, just not super epic flood levels. But if the hurricane decides to come this way the numbers go up considerably from there.
Even without a hurricane, the Carolina's are poised to get a crapload of rain. Major flooding will happen.
Us? Well, it'll be rainy nomatter what, but if we don't take a hurricane hit, the biblical levels of rainfall stay south of the Mason Dixon Line. We'd be talking around 3-4" along the Delaware/Maryland border, less as you go west and north. That's still a lot, just not super epic flood levels. But if the hurricane decides to come this way the numbers go up considerably from there.
krayfish2
Well-known member
3" of rain would be welcomed more than 10".
Since the storm path has changed, update gauges. Amazing how much some of these jumped while others barely moved.
Swatara at Harper's Tavern
Current flow - 80 cfs
Normal flow - 110 cfs
Crested at 1670 cfs yesterday
Penns at town of Penns Creek
Current flow - 77 cfs
Normal flow - 95 cfs
Crested 185 cfs yesterday morning
Loyalsock at Loyalsockville
Current flow - 55 cfs
Normal flow - 160 cfs
Crested at 158 cfs this morning
Susky at Harrisburg
Current flow - 4230 cfs
Normal flow - 7500 cfs
Crested at 6000 cfs yesterday afternoon
Beaverkill at Cooks Falls
Current flow - 65 cfs
Normal flow - 240 cfs
Crested at 1400 cfs yesterday afternoon
East Branch of Delaware at Fishes Eddy
Current flow - 177 cfs
Normal flow - 500 cfs
Crested at 1750 cfs last evening
West Branch of Delaware at Walton
Current flow - 45 cfs
Normal flow - 100 cfs
Crested at 1400 cfs last evening
Since the storm path has changed, update gauges. Amazing how much some of these jumped while others barely moved.
Swatara at Harper's Tavern
Current flow - 80 cfs
Normal flow - 110 cfs
Crested at 1670 cfs yesterday
Penns at town of Penns Creek
Current flow - 77 cfs
Normal flow - 95 cfs
Crested 185 cfs yesterday morning
Loyalsock at Loyalsockville
Current flow - 55 cfs
Normal flow - 160 cfs
Crested at 158 cfs this morning
Susky at Harrisburg
Current flow - 4230 cfs
Normal flow - 7500 cfs
Crested at 6000 cfs yesterday afternoon
Beaverkill at Cooks Falls
Current flow - 65 cfs
Normal flow - 240 cfs
Crested at 1400 cfs yesterday afternoon
East Branch of Delaware at Fishes Eddy
Current flow - 177 cfs
Normal flow - 500 cfs
Crested at 1750 cfs last evening
West Branch of Delaware at Walton
Current flow - 45 cfs
Normal flow - 100 cfs
Crested at 1400 cfs last evening
Swattie87
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There’s still a cluster of models that like the “left hook” into the Carolinas, but there also seems to be more of a trend in the last 24 hours toward a cluster that like that northward, hug the coast the approach. Both generally have slowed the arrival of the storm some…looks more like a Sunday deal if it’s the Carolinas, and even later as you go up the coast if the second scenario pans out. There’s still the outlier of a turn out to sea to the NE in a couple of the models too.
The Carolina track will produce a stronger storm, possibly still even a borderline major hurricane, but with relatively more localized affects. The eastern seaboard track likely produces a weaker storm in terms of max sustained wind, but a larger storm with a more widespread impact area. All scenarios predict a generally stronger storm than they did 24 hours ago thanks to the intensification yesterday.
The Carolina track will produce a stronger storm, possibly still even a borderline major hurricane, but with relatively more localized affects. The eastern seaboard track likely produces a weaker storm in terms of max sustained wind, but a larger storm with a more widespread impact area. All scenarios predict a generally stronger storm than they did 24 hours ago thanks to the intensification yesterday.
pcray1231
Well-known member
yeah, and when a strongish hurricane is about, it's real easy to get overly focused on that.
Even if the hurricane never comes ashore, it's still feeding moisture to an exceptionally strong nor-easter blowing that moisture over a stalled and sharp cold front. The Carolina's are still looking at 7-15" of rain, and here in SE PA 2-5", and major beach erosion and coastal flooding from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod. That's WITHOUT a hurricane. The storm prior will cause plenty of issues on it's own. The hurricane track determines who gets the knock out punch at the end. If it does go to the Carolina's, 20+ inches in 4 days isn't out of the question for them, with wind damage to boot. That's crazy.
And also note, that for us, a more northerly track keeps us at the initial 2-5" inches. A middle track adds a hurricane hit on top of that, not good. But a southerly track isn't all roses, as while we may miss the wind, it still feeds the remnants over top of us going into next week and adds to our rain totals. For inland people who fear excessive rain moreso than wind and surge in a tropical system, it's still a "hit" for all intents and purposes.
Even if the hurricane never comes ashore, it's still feeding moisture to an exceptionally strong nor-easter blowing that moisture over a stalled and sharp cold front. The Carolina's are still looking at 7-15" of rain, and here in SE PA 2-5", and major beach erosion and coastal flooding from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod. That's WITHOUT a hurricane. The storm prior will cause plenty of issues on it's own. The hurricane track determines who gets the knock out punch at the end. If it does go to the Carolina's, 20+ inches in 4 days isn't out of the question for them, with wind damage to boot. That's crazy.
And also note, that for us, a more northerly track keeps us at the initial 2-5" inches. A middle track adds a hurricane hit on top of that, not good. But a southerly track isn't all roses, as while we may miss the wind, it still feeds the remnants over top of us going into next week and adds to our rain totals. For inland people who fear excessive rain moreso than wind and surge in a tropical system, it's still a "hit" for all intents and purposes.
greenghost
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- Jun 25, 2008
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Well, there is a chance it will get "kicked" out into the sea.
Love this guy's explanation and passion as he delivers the facts.
Love this guy's explanation and passion as he delivers the facts.
laszlo
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Who is that guy, I can't stop watching him.
Z
Zak
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There isn't even rain in the forecast now for Eastern PA early next week on most. Most models are now taking it out to see and not impacting PA at all. To me, that's good news. Nothing good was going to come from 2-5" of rain in that short of a time frame. I'd rather streams be low then deal with that mess.
pcray1231
Well-known member
Yes, it's looking like it's gonna stay at sea. How far out is still in question, remembering that the maps show the center, but hurricanes are very large in diameter.
Anyway, we're still in for 2-5" of rain here in SE PA, totaling last night through Sunday. Less as you go NW. That blob we're getting right now will grow and move west. That was called WITHOUT the hurricane, just the impact of the Nor'easter out ahead of it. The hurricane could have pushed the total over 10" by adding an additional 5+ on Sunday through Tuesday. 2-5" is plenty wet with maybe some minor flooding, but nothing too awfully serious. We've had PAFF jams with worse!
Still feel bad for SC and parts of NC. Around 15" being called for there. Again, that's without the hurricane, just from the Nor'easter. Could have been 20+ very easily.
And the hurricane is still very much worthwhile keeping an eye on. The variation in model output is huge, meaning it's a tough forcast and this thing has a mind of it's own. There are a bunch of things pulling it in multiple directions, and it's like trying to predict the next wobble of a spinning top. They appear to have been wrong about it's track before, but still could be wrong now. At this time frame for Sandy they were saying out to sea as well, with only 1 or 2 models saying otherwise, pretty much the same situation as right now.
Anyway, we're still in for 2-5" of rain here in SE PA, totaling last night through Sunday. Less as you go NW. That blob we're getting right now will grow and move west. That was called WITHOUT the hurricane, just the impact of the Nor'easter out ahead of it. The hurricane could have pushed the total over 10" by adding an additional 5+ on Sunday through Tuesday. 2-5" is plenty wet with maybe some minor flooding, but nothing too awfully serious. We've had PAFF jams with worse!
Still feel bad for SC and parts of NC. Around 15" being called for there. Again, that's without the hurricane, just from the Nor'easter. Could have been 20+ very easily.
And the hurricane is still very much worthwhile keeping an eye on. The variation in model output is huge, meaning it's a tough forcast and this thing has a mind of it's own. There are a bunch of things pulling it in multiple directions, and it's like trying to predict the next wobble of a spinning top. They appear to have been wrong about it's track before, but still could be wrong now. At this time frame for Sandy they were saying out to sea as well, with only 1 or 2 models saying otherwise, pretty much the same situation as right now.
greenghost
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albud1962
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You got it
F
flyfishinx2
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WOLF! WOLF! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!
pcray1231
Well-known member
For us, it was a near miss for a serious situation, and I acknowledged the uncertainty that existed at that time.
For south Carolina, it's still a serious situation.
For south Carolina, it's still a serious situation.
