Invasive trout species pushing native brook trout out of thermal refuge is one of the most well documented mechanisms of harm, out of the multitude, we have seen in the literature.
Dr. Kurt D Fausch first demonstrated brown trout displace brook trout from prime in stream habitat in 1981.
-then brown trout impairing brook trouts use of thermal refuge clearly demonstrated in experimental setting by Dr. Hitt. He hypothesizes that removal of BT would allow downstream expansion of brook trout in many cases depending on the spacial confoguration of thermal refuge.
NP Hitt, EL Snook, DL Massie, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 2017 - Cited by 54
scholar.google.com
-then this concept of brown trout and rainbow trout displacing native brook trout from thermal refuge was demonstrated by Trego et al’s 2019 study that utilized snorkeling surveys in shavers fork in WV.
-then Brock Huntsman et al. In 2022 studied competition on habitat use between native brook trout and brown trout on stream improvement reaches. It concluded native brook trout listed as target species for stream restorations cannot benefit from stream restoration if invasive brown trout are present and the restoration can likely give the invader the upper hand to displace them in many cases.
In Michigan Hoxmier and Deiterman Removed brown trout from Coolidge Creek and the brook trout population did in fact immigrate downstream and use the larger waterways when brown trout were gone as suggested by Nathaniel Hitt’s exerimental findings of brown trout impairing brook trout use of thermal habitat.
I don’t know If fisheries scientists can say anything more confidently about brown and trout brook trout interactions as a whole than the fact that browns push brook trout out of prime habitat features at fine scale including specifically thermal refuge. It could be the single most scientifically supported conclusion I’ve seen in fisheries science research examining negative effects of invasive brown trout on brook trout.
I would say that obviously the observation of not seeing them replaced at thermal refuge survey to survey is not hith quality data compared the above. These studies control for variables/confounders in many cases and are carefully designed.
Your electro survey observations of not seeing brown trout replace brook trout at thermal refuge sites could be due to the fact that where you see brown trout only Brook trout have already been displaced. And where you see brook trout only I could imagine there would be a number of reasons brown trout have not yet displaced brook trout in certain locations. However, i have to say we all know streams where brown trout have almost completely displaced brook trout recently(relatively speaking). If you took segloch run for example obviously brook trout appear to be on their way out there on a completely forested stream with spring influence on SGL. You would have to see the change of species composition occurring at sites of thermal refuge in a stream like that if noticeable displacement is actively occurring. Segloch is anecdotal as far as I know but personally experienced and seems obviously a case of displacement. However, point is displacement is happening in Pa we know this this includes thermal refuge in streams where displacement occurs.