Spring is 20 days early

Possible snow event for this weekend in the laurel highlands, still too far off to predict totals, but the temps are going to be COLD!
 
Swath of 2-6" Thursday night in the west and Friday in the eastern areas. Most areas in the 2-3" range but more in the predictable spots. Southern and northern edges still in question too but yes, the swath will go through PA.

Potential blockbuster Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. Potentially 20" in places, widespread foot plus. But a lot of uncertainty yet on that one. Nor'easter, but may not make the turn and drift out to sea down south before ramping up. Or it could make it too late and it's a storm, but a fish storm. For it to nail us, it has to thread a needle. But it's possible and being watched.
 
Blockbuster looking more likely. And likely Tuesday. Currently mostly an eastern PA storm, with NJ really getting slammed. So really the bust risk at this long lead time is to have it slide more east and miss us, but it's getting pretty clear that a major storm will form and dump a swath of well over a foot tracing up the northeast coast.

Big old high pressure to hold a southern storm around a while, just waiting for a clipper to ride the northern jet. Solves timing issues with a phase, plus forces it to blow up further south when it does phase, and makes it slow mover that drops more snow. It's what has been missing all winter.

Milk and bread!
 
Last I looked, it is supposed to pass mostly south of NE Ohio and NW PA, but test of PA was in it's sites.

Freakin wind yesterday tore some of my barn roof loss. Several sheets of the old steel roof are flapping in the wind. I hope it doesn't come completely off.

Hey Bikerfish, what are you doing this weekend? ;-)
 
Is it just me, or the area of PA in which I live or is it really this windy?
It seems like everyday to every other day the wind has been ripping for almost 2 months now.
If it was prime bass season I would be highly annoyed.
 
Time of year. Low with cold front comes through from the W or NW...strong, arctic driven winds behind it. Pattern changes most years by early April, and the winds behind the fronts stop, or more accurately, lessen and are warmer and thus are less noticeable.
 
FD. Still early, but models in general agreement for this far out. Northwest PA and Northeast Ohio on the edge. 0-10". Pitt on the high end of that. Erie on the low end.

High teens along I-95 between NYC and Baltimore, including Philly.

20+ along I-95 from NYC to Boston.

Tons of wind.

Setup and track almost identical to the March 1993 storm. A touch weaker as currently modeled. But some are hinting at getting 3 jet streams in play which would take it to that level.
 
Oh great. Part of the barn roof flopping in the breeze and more to come. I know I should have stayed home!

But what you said does look like most of the snow at least will miss me to the south and east.

You busy tomorrow, and how are you on ladders in a blizzard?
 
Just had a peek at the 18z GFS. I shouldn't have. Mother of God. Hope it's wrong. Slight west shift, but brought that 3rd jet in. I already took my winter tires off!

Jackpot swath of 30" runs Philly, through Albany, western Mass and into Maine. 20" in state college and Scranton. 23" Somerset to Altoona along the Allegheny Front. 12" in Pitt. 6" in Erie.
 
pcray1231 wrote:
Just had a peek at the 18z GFS. I shouldn't have. Mother of God. Hope it's wrong. I already took my winter tires off.

Philly-NYC jackpot of 30". 20" in state college. 12" in Pitt. 6" in Erie.
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At least with those kind of numbers the tires won't matter. That'll shut everything down for a day. By the next day, roads will be cleared, or decent enough at least that you should be ok in one of your Subie's.

I didn't buy snow tires for my Camry yet. I'm contemplating not. I'm trying to not end up in another 220k mile car like the Focus was for my commuter. Buy a one year old coming off a lease with 10-20k miles, run it for 3 years up to 100k or so, trade it before any maintenance issues crop up, repeat. Don't necessarily wanna sink the investment into snow tires and wheels then likely have to sell them and buy new ones just 3 years later again, or be limited to trying to find a new vehicle they'll fit. Just drive the Taco on snowy days, or work from home if possible.
 
Pcray, swattie, 0z continues the insanity. Been following this one too. Insane setup. This one is the real deal.

Assuming we can all mentally handle feet of snow after having 70s for a good portion of February, this storm will be exactly what's needed. Hopefully it totally alters the long term weather pattern in the process.
 
FarmerDave wrote:
Last I looked, it is supposed to pass mostly south of NE Ohio and NW PA, but test of PA was in it's sites.

Freakin wind yesterday tore some of my barn roof loss. Several sheets of the old steel roof are flapping in the wind. I hope it doesn't come completely off.

Hey Bikerfish, what are you doing this weekend? ;-)
Click to expand...

Haha, not climbing on a barn!!! I'll be sking as always!
 
We got about 3 inches here - and still snowing. Worst part is, it's supposed to stay cold and snowy through most of next week.

Maybe the ground hog wasn't so far off with his prediction after all.
However, what he should have said, instead of 6 more weeks of winter - we're going to have 5 weeks of spring, followed by one more week of winter
 
dryflyguy wrote:
We got about 3 inches here - and still snowing. Worst part is, it's supposed to stay cold and snowy through most of next week.
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That's not a bad thing at all at this point in time. With next Tues BIG snow we should have a nice amount of time released melting to add to stream levels. That's a good thing.
 
wildtrout2 wrote:
dryflyguy wrote:
We got about 3 inches here - and still snowing. Worst part is, it's supposed to stay cold and snowy through most of next week.
Click to expand...
That's not a bad thing at all at this point in time. With next Tues BIG snow we should have a nice amount of time released melting to add to stream levels. That's a good thing.
Click to expand...

It's bad for me.
I put in for vacation next week to fish BWO's. And I'm just not into ice fishing!
 
dryflyguy wrote:
wildtrout2 wrote:
dryflyguy wrote:
We got about 3 inches here - and still snowing. Worst part is, it's supposed to stay cold and snowy through most of next week.
Click to expand...
That's not a bad thing at all at this point in time. With next Tues BIG snow we should have a nice amount of time released melting to add to stream levels. That's a good thing.
Click to expand...

It's bad for me.
I put in for vacation next week to fish BWO's. And I'm just not into ice fishing!
Click to expand...

^ That's a shame, DFG.

I'm in the same boat, so to speak. I'm forced to plan my vacation days well in advance and I have no idea what conditions will be during my time off.

I envy guys that get time off on short notice and hit the streams when conditions are good.

It's doubly tough for you since you only fish dries. Under tough conditions I've been known to dredge the bottom and/or strip a streamer when the fish aren't looking up to save the day.

Check conditions next week. Perhaps taking a longer drive and fishing a limestoner spring creek will be productive. I've had some great days dry fly fishing during winter conditions on some of the central / south central PA limestone streams.

Good luck!
 
Pcray, swattie, 0z continues the insanity. Been following this one too.
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Yet my accuweather app says a total of 4". Lol. Like what the heck model does it use? Not a single one says anything less that a foot here. Even the crappy ones are on board. Not even an ensemble member!

I suppose it's political metallurgy. Start small and increase, work up to it. If you see more than an inch predicted at 4+ days, it's gonna be big.

But really, I know models can fail when the pieces are still over the ocean and not well sampled. But I've never seen every single model and even every ensemble member in near lockstep like this at this lead time. Kind of tells you that the setup is such that minor differences in the current atmosphere don't have strong effects on the outcome. A big storm is coming.
 
Well I planned my vacation for next week too, only I'm going to FLORIDA!!to fish for some of those nasty redfish in the tidal marshes on the NE coast.

Sometimes blindly picking a vacation time actually works out! :lol:
 
2" of wet snow here. Not much of a big scary snow storm.
 
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