Serious rain coming to most of PA

[albatross]

3 inches or more across the southern tier. 2 inches for the Erie tribs. This should be a difference maker. Rain starting overnight Wed into Thurs and continuing to Sat morning Oct 1st.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-3.shtml

 

[pcray1231]

For the tribs, it certainly will help. But I don't think it's the silver bullet that it would be if it were 2 weeks later.

2 things are necessary to start a sizable run (more than the handful of fish poking there heads around now).

1. You need the lake temperature to come down. Signals to fishies out in the lake --> time to head to the tribs.

2. You need flow to allow them to get into the tribs and get upstream.

It's gotta happen in that order and getting #2 doesn't help a whole lot without #1 happening first. Normal lake temps are mid 60's at this time of year. We're still at 72 last I saw. 68 is regarded as a "magic" number to really get things moving. I don't know how magic it is but colder is definitely better.

If there were thousands of fish just waiting for high water to come in, they'd be cleaning up in the lake around the mouths of the creeks. They're not. They're picking up the very occasional fish just like the stream guys are doing in the lower ends. There aren't huge schools staging right now. The warm lake is why.

That said, yes, it's still better than NOT getting the rain. But for now I'm looking for those cool nights as the first priority, and we're getting them too, so things are looking up. But once the lakes get into the 60's THEN I'm watching for the big rain.

Tropical Storm Matthew is a potential silver bullet. It's still far out so track is very uncertain but currently on path to provide that silver bullet in just under 2 weeks. Hopefully it comes and by that time our lake temps are where they need to be.

 

[ryguyfi]

Also 2" sounds like a lot, but the streams will be back to the same levels in 3 days after the rain. Until the trees drop their leaves they continue to suck out the rain water and the water drops significantly after a big rain. I'm sure some fish will get into the stream but this early in the season you won't see a big push unless there is rain for days on end and the water temps drop like pcray said. That said, if I lived closer I would be up there fishing.

 

[steveo27]

I hope that prediction is right.

 

[sandfly]

so far nothing in NC pa. bright sunny day

 

[The_Sasquatch]

sandfly wrote:
so far nothing in NC pa. bright sunny day

It's comin tonight. Right around when Sasquatch will be rollin into town, the rains will be rollin' into town

 

[sarce]

Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Much needed.

 

[CRB]

No rain here along the PA tribs most of the rain coming this way is moving north west away from Erie county. With the lake 70* the forecast models are not considering the high pressure and north easterly winds that are caused by lake air wanting to be warm. It happens every day with the morning and evening lake breezes.
I have a feeling the rain will drift south and not bring much over the next 3 days.

 

[salmo]

As of 7:00 am today the rainfall event has not had much of an impact on Pennsylvania. Less than .5 inch in most of the state. Hopefully more to come.

 

[pcray1231]

Last night did underperform. I won't say it was a complete whiff, as a half inch is nothing to sneeze at. And it's still going.

But yeah, there's more to come. We won't see the sun for 5 days. On and off drizzle and wind with occasional pulses of more meaningful rains. Just a big upper level low kind of stalled and sitting on the Ohio/Indiana border.

 

[Dave_W]

Steady rain, just about the right pace, here in SCPA. I've got nearly 2" in my rain gauge this morning.

Been watching Doppler radar - it's moving slow - and I keep urging those rain bands to get further north.

Out little USGS color dot map is showing the effects already as the red dots are reatreating to the north. Happy weather news.

 

[pcray1231]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Hit animate. See the rainy, drizzly future....

 

[Jessed]

SEPA has a good bit of rain coming down. Supposed to last until Sunday morning

 

[steveo27]

.15" here so far. Booo

 

[wildtrout2]

We have NOT gotten the amount of rain predicted, which doesn't surprise me a little bit.

 

[pcray1231]

24 hr rainfall map as of 11 a.m.

 

[sarce]

WT2 it's far from over.

 

[Hook_Jaw]

looks like heavier rain still coming yet I hope atleast.

 

[FarmerDave]

pcray1231 wrote:
24 hr rainfall map as of 11 a.m.

Yea, I live in the middle of one of those green spots, or dang close, and nowhere near an inch fell last night ... to the best of my knowledge. I didn't actually measure it, but what did fell was pretty light.

I also looked at accuweather a little bit ago, and the radar is showing some moderate rain. Well, radar may be showing it, but it aint making it to the ground. Just a drizzle.

Edit: Normally the rain moves west to east, and that would have been a decent indication for The PA lake Erie tribs. But I just noticed this one is moving SE to NW, so it is irrelevant as far as PA lake Erie tribs are concerned.

Sorry.

 

[krayfish2]

Pretty much a swing-and-a-miss by the weatherman in the Harrisburg area