Rain

[albatross]

Another rain event coming to usher in the weekend. Maybe a half inch more in State College for example by Saturday.

Enough already!

 

[troutbert]

troutbert wrote:
When forest roads are in the floodplain:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjrpV_A8eH0

Big Bear Creek, Lycoming County

Has anyone driven up the road along Big Bear Creek (Loyalsock drainage) since the flood of 2011.

I'm curious what they did up there regarding the road and the stream.

When I drove up there sometime before the flood, I noticed that the road was actually at a lower elevation than the stream channel.

That's not a good thing!

 

[pcray1231]

Without another whopper, they could all be in really nice shape for sulphurs.

And that's the problem.

Yes, I know it's good long term and bad short term. But I'm being selfish. I have 4 evenings to fish up there this spring, starting in 1 week. Streams are high with around an inch more rain predicted between now and then. Not good.

I will take a dryish April and May, followed by a wet June, July and August anytime. The fish aren't in trouble till mid summer anyway. Give me a spring where I can chase hatches on big water, then a summer where the smaller waters are bank full.

I'll make due, though. If the good Lord wants me to chase brookies in May, then so be it.

 

[Swattie87]

I think a half inch-ish is about what the big streams can take this weekend, given current levels, and still rebound for the Jam. Spring perhaps a little more given how it falls quicker. If it's an inch or more things are gonna be real high, especially for those arriving early. Brookie fishing should be pretty well dialed in either way.

That map Alby posted has the higher amounts further east as you go. Might bring the Little J more into the picture for Jam goers if the more eastern streams get hit harder.

 

[krayfish2]

From this point forward, I'll mark the jam on my calendar and plant grass seed 2 days prior to event. Lol. Every year it seems like.

Provided the streams are at a safe level, the fish will still feed if the water is dirty. If it's less than an inch of clarity, beer and fire ring might be the best choice. 1/2 inch over the weekend will run off pretty quickly. Should be good Wednesday.

 

[lycoflyfisher]

troutbert wrote:

troutbert wrote:
When forest roads are in the floodplain:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjrpV_A8eH0

Big Bear Creek, Lycoming County

Has anyone driven up the road along Big Bear Creek (Loyalsock drainage) since the flood of 2011.

I'm curious what they did up there regarding the road and the stream.

When I drove up there sometime before the flood, I noticed that the road was actually at a lower elevation than the stream channel.

That's not a good thing!

Some sections of the road were raised, but as a whole there are still sections of the road that are right along the stream and still definitely in the floodplain. Major rain events are still going to raise havoc. The stream appears to be developing nicely, several stretches have habitat and bank stabilization structures. Some sections are still wide and flat trapezoidal channels especially closer to the lower end.

 

[pcray1231]

Swattie,

Accuweather is showing 1.46 inches for Coburn between today and Monday morning. Not all in one dumping, it's spread out over 4 days, starting today, but it adds up. Alby's map is just a piece of it, and a 24 hr total on a west to east system. Move it back 12 hrs and the rain is west, not east. Move it forward a day and there's another system.

We will see. It's thunderstorm season and common for one place to get double and another to get half. But the accumulated totals predicted have stayed rather consistent for days, and surrounding towns show almost the same. Rarely a good sign.

On the bright side, if the streams aren't blown, they are showing good fishing and camping weather while we're up there. A warm up, with plenty of clouds, but no rain to speak of.

 

[Swattie87]

Yeah, most of what I saw yesterday from a combination of Accuweather and WUnderground (haven't looked yet this morning) was in the 0.75 - 1 inch range for most of the Jam area...generally more to the south and east, less to the north and west as Alby's map showed. I'm not convinced the follow up system will amount to much. Some models aren't even showing anything. Most of what I'm seeing shows the majority of the rain being done by early Sunday.

At this point, it's safe to say it's gonna rain this weekend I think! As noted, all depends on where and how much. Even with a broader scale rain event, as this one will likely be, you can get significant variation over 100 or even 50 miles. Hopefully at least one of the big streams gets relatively "missed" from the 1 inch+ type stuff. I think Spring will be ok by the second half of next week regardless...It's probably very fishable again already from last week's rain, but LJR and Penns are a different deal. Penns is notoriously slow to fall.

Agree though...looks like good weather for next week while we're there. Let's hope this weekend's rain shifts further to the SE, where it's needed more anyway at this point.

Edit: Yeah, trend overnight was generally an uptick by a 1/4 inch or so in most spots. But it does have any significant rain ending by Sat night, with essentially a trace Sunday, then dry. The earlier it stops, clearly the better.

 

[Van_Cleaver]

I live South of Morgantown and we have been missing most of the real rain. The predictions have been higher than the actual amounts all Spring. I'm happy to see some rain but wish you guys the best; I always seem to be working Jam Weekend and have two music gigs I couldn't bail on. Good luck to all!

 

[tomitrout]

Until I see this gage get back into the realm of 'normal' flows, keep on bringing these soakers, one a week all summer long would be great. Our local groundwater levels are still scary low.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/uv?site_no=01569460

 

[salmonoid]

tomitrout wrote:
Until I see this gage get back into the realm of 'normal' flows, keep on bringing these soakers, one a week all summer long would be great. Our local groundwater levels are still scary low.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/uv?site_no=01569460

Agreed - my local gauge is running at half the historical average. And that's an indication that groundwater levels have not recovered. Of course rain events provide a bump in surface levels, but what the stream recovers too (and how quickly it falls) indicate the low groundwater levels.

 

[Swattie87]

Thus far, today's radar is less impressive than I thought it would be given the predictions, especially the further north you go. WUnderground dropped their prediction through Sunday for State College (I've been using that as a center point for the Jam) back down from 1.25 inches this morning to 0.85 currently...about where it was yesterday.

 

[mr7183]

Swattie87 wrote:
Thus far, today's radar is less impressive than I thought it would be given the predictions, especially the further north you go. WUnderground dropped their prediction through Sunday for State College (I've been using that as a center point for the Jam) back down from 1.25 inches this morning to 0.85 currently...about where it was yesterday.

Even less now (.67). I'm hoping most of this misses the Penns Valley -- I am camping at Poe this weekend.

 

[pcray1231]

Good trends. And with the radar showing most of batch #1 through, and barely a blip on the gauges. At best a pause to falling waters.

 

[troutbert]

lycoflyfisher wrote:

troutbert wrote:

troutbert wrote:
When forest roads are in the floodplain:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjrpV_A8eH0

Big Bear Creek, Lycoming County

Has anyone driven up the road along Big Bear Creek (Loyalsock drainage) since the flood of 2011.

I'm curious what they did up there regarding the road and the stream.

When I drove up there sometime before the flood, I noticed that the road was actually at a lower elevation than the stream channel.

That's not a good thing!

Some sections of the road were raised, but as a whole there are still sections of the road that are right along the stream and still definitely in the floodplain. Major rain events are still going to raise havoc. The stream appears to be developing nicely, several stretches have habitat and bank stabilization structures. Some sections are still wide and flat trapezoidal channels especially closer to the lower end.

Thanks for the information. I went along on a field trip to see the big stream habitat project they did on Bear Creek, which was pretty interesting. But I haven't been back there since the flood.

 

[Swattie87]

Streams handled yesterday's precip generally well. Spring and Penns didn't even blink. Little J showed a minor bump but it passed through and it has returned to its baseline fall curve after the last big rain.

WUnderground for State College currently estimates 0.42 inches from tonight's event. Then essentially dry next week.

Current Jam prediction based on the above: Spring will be dialed in. Little J will be on the high end of dialed in, but very fishable. Penns will be higher than desired, but fishable. Brookies streams will have plenty of water and fish well. All in all, if that holds, coupled with dry but potentially cloudy and warm conditions next week, can't ask for much better.

 

[pcray1231]

Methinks that's an optimistic take. But we will see.

That big rain a week ago went almost straight to groundwater. Very little runoff. Aside from any new rain, we have a supercharged aquifer. And to put it in perspective, Penn's was the highest it's been in 2 years. Flows are leveling out at a high level. The shape of the graphs look good, but look how high it is on groundwater flows.

Spring and the LJR will be high but fishable at best. Penn's may be punishable, or at least all you may be able to do is play in the margins. Color will be better than flows.

 

[Swattie87]

Things generally went perfect this weekend with the rain. Eastern PA, where it was needed more, got the vast majority of it. Minor bumps, if anything on the central PA gauges, and now back to continued falling.

If this week's dry/warm forecast holds we should be looking at very nice Jam conditions. Dry weather for fishing/camping, good Brookie fishing from the charged aquifers, and the big streams very fishable. Who knows how the fishing/bugs will be, but this is shaping up to potentially be the best overall water conditions heading into a Jam since I've been going...since 2012 I think?

Assuming no rain as forecasted, by next weekend I think Spring will be perfect. LJR pretty darn close to perfect too, maybe just a touch high, but very good. Penns, a little high, but fishable. If this holds, we hit the lotto IMO.

 

[mr7183]

Swattie87 wrote:
Assuming no rain as forecasted, by next weekend I think Spring will be perfect. LJR pretty darn close to perfect too, maybe just a touch high, but very good. Penns, a little high, but fishable. If this holds, we hit the lotto IMO.

Penns will be perfect IMO. I was in the island section of the C&R yesterday and it was still wadable in the longer flats. By this weekend, it should be flowing around 500 with that Penns green color. I'm jealous because I think you guys hit the jackpot.

I ran into two guys floating Penns yesterday (first time I've seen that). FWIW, they said the fishing was fantastic from the boat two days ago.

 

[Troy]

mr7183 wrote:

Swattie87 wrote:
Assuming no rain as forecasted, by next weekend I think Spring will be perfect. LJR pretty darn close to perfect too, maybe just a touch high, but very good. Penns, a little high, but fishable. If this holds, we hit the lotto IMO.

Penns will be perfect IMO. I was in the island section of the C&R yesterday and it was still wadable in the longer flats. By this weekend, it should be flowing around 500 with that Penns green color. I'm jealous because I think you guys hit the jackpot.

I ran into two guys floating Penns yesterday (first time I've seen that). FWIW, they said the fishing was fantastic from the boat two days ago.

I talked to the same guys on Friday. They told me they had a great day with March Browns. Not where I was. Saw March Browns and crane flies, but the fish didn't care. Penns will be perfect tor you all.