Fly-Swatter wrote:
I love reading these threads. There is a ton of experience and knowledge here.
I'll dive in...
IMO, Pete is closest to the "truth": Chances for the biggest fish are when conditions are best. Unfortunately, that statement is less helpful that it seems because it’s too general. There are many important variables: fishing pressure, water temp, time of year, availability of food, water level, fish population density/competition, riparian cover/canopy, aquatic cover/structure, etc.
You would have to be obsessive to even try to account for all this!
Another problem is most/all of us do not keep clean (confounding variable-free) data. For example, salmonid's, who is clearly a scientific guy, showed a chart that’s really interesting until you ask what time of year each fish was caught. The changing length of day and the switch between standard and daylight savings time are pretty big confounding variables there.
My take, it’s cool to think about this stuff because it helps us be more “tactical” (ref. other thread), but the bottom line for me is to have fun! Part of the fun for me is thinking about this stuff, but there is a sharp drop off in fun when it becomes too much like work.
All datasets that are for a single angler are going to be skewed towards that angler's habits. The time of day they fish, the time of year they fish, the types of streams they fish, and the geographic location they fish will skew the data. So for the OP, who is off the stream by 2-3PM, a true statement may be that he never catches large browns in the afternoon. But the reason is not because large browns can't be caught in the afternoon but that the afternoon is not his primary fishing time.
I'm in IT by profession, but it's true I am a scientist by training and degree. To generate a meaningful chart of larger fish by time of year turned out to not be quite as simple to graph as the time of day chart was. I use an app to log all my catches. This data is stored in a SQLite database, and includes geolocation, date, time, species, weather data (if I have access to a cell signal, but my phone is usually in airplane mode while fishing, for numerous reasons), what I was using, length (either pre-defined ranges or an exact measurement if I take one), etc. This is then very easy to query using SQL or the data can be exported to CSV for analysis in Excel or other programs.
Because Excel stores the date as the number of days from January 1, 1900, trying to graph days in 2012-2015 generated a chart with really weird date labels. Even though I was only displaying MM-DD, the underlying data still included the year, so to get all fish caught in August to show up together, I needed to strip off the year. So I converted the original date to the day of the year (1-365), and since I can easier visualize that 8/1 is August 1 than it is day 213 of the year, I picked an arbitrary year to get back to MM-DD format. Now, all of the same months across the four years were together.
What does it say? First, I did very little fishing in the winter/early spring of 2014-2015 because it was so darn cold. With the exception of Spring, I also don't fish the creeks that have produced other larger fish at other times of the year during the winter time. There's probably more than a loose correlation between the amount of time I spend fishing and when I catch the larger fish (i.e. more time on the water in late spring, summer and early fall than winter, early spring and late fall).
I agree that angling is about having fun. I think looking at actual data and knowing the context it was generated in provides more insight into that fun. Plus, with reduced daylight hours and temperatures in the winter, analysis is something else to do that is fishing related.
One other path I went down at the end of last year was to answer for myself whether or not there were trends towards night fishing being more or less effective depending on the moon phase. For instance, there are anglers who claim that night fishing is best when there is no moon. I have caught a number of fish under a full moon, but that doesn't mean that fishing under a waxing or waning crescent moon might not be more effective.
The answer for me? Hard to tell. In order to analyze the data, I wrote a script that pulled in a number of variables (location, date, time, etc). I used a cutoff of sunset to define night fishing (although this technically pulls in a few fish that I caught at dusk while not "night fishing"). I took the GPS location of the catch and calculated sunset, adjusted for DST. If the time of the catch was after sunset, I then calculated the moon phase for that date.
Total: 78
New Moon: 10
Waxing Crescent: 9
First Quarter: 7
Waxing Gibbous: 3
Full Moon: 10
Waning Gibbous: 15
Last Quarter: 12
Waning Crescent: 12
A new moon rises in the morning and is already set before it is night time, but it rises later and sets later as the moon proceeds through it's cycle. And by the time you're into waning gibbous, it is usually rising after I'm already asleep for the night. So there may be a weak correlation to the visible light aspect, but maybe I had less opportunities to fish during the first quarter and waxing gibbous phases. The only way to validate the data is to generate more inclusive data by fishing more
Also agree that when the conditions are "right", you'll have a better chance of catching a larger fish. What the right conditions are can be variable. If you're on a small stream and you have a thunderstorm blow through that muddies the water, that will bring the bigger boys out to play. If you catch a stream following a longer term rain event, even if it isn't off-color but just flowing high, browns might be on the move. Browns are vulnerable at night, but it is not at all a lock that you'll catch a big fish just because you night fish. And underlying this all is that the stream you fish has to have big fish in it to begin with. Locating a large fish definitely increases you odds of catching a large fish. Being at the right place even when all the conditions are wrong is better than being at the wrong place when all the conditions are right.