Current PA Brook Trout Population as Percentage of Original?

tb"And the point of it all is that if in fact the populations of brook trout in PA are off by ~95%, then that ought be given some consideration in conservation and management decisions regarding brook trout."

ok, what conservation and management actions would reverse an important share of the 95% biomass loss?
 
pcray1231 wrote:
Chaz, the rainforests are wetter and warmer than those places, and Antarctica is the driest continent on earth.

See, I can give examples too.

The truth is that temperature isn't the only thing that affects rainfall. In fact its one of the lesser causes. The places you mentioned are dry because of mountains and the rain shadow effect.
And there are other places where it doesn't hold true, I was merely making a point, that is, hotter isn't necessarily wetter. It has a lot to do with geology. The west is dry because of many factors, primarily the mountains wringing out the moisture from the clouds, but that doesn't even explain why L.A. gets 10 inches of rain annually and Seattle gets 35 inches of rain annually. I'd like to know that explanation of that one. And we get much more than both cities.
But getting back to the original question, we seem to all pretty much agree that the numbers of brookies are down in most streams compared to 1492. There are multiple reasons, but it is almost always a human intervention problem, Not Nature.
 
k-bob wrote:
tb"And the point of it all is that if in fact the populations of brook trout in PA are off by ~95%, then that ought be given some consideration in conservation and management decisions regarding brook trout."

ok, what conservation and management actions would reverse an important share of the 95% biomass loss?

My answer to this question is, reduce harvest on the streams that are most threatened, and target those streams for conservation work, harvest =0. The very best streams that can support some harvest should be monitored and maybe change the regs to 2 brookies a day and no limit on BR and RT.
The rest probably 80% of the streams should have reduced harvest say 2 ST, and all other trout caught must be kept, and these streams should be targeted for removing human impacts, and ph monitoring. In fact all the ST streams should be monitored for ph.
That's most likely the most radical approach, but if you really want to make a difference you need a radical approach.
 
Acid rain is already waning. At first it was due to better scrubbers on coal power plants, and I'd expect the trend will accelerate now that we're totally shutting down a fair % of the coal plants. I recognize much damage is ir-reparable, as it's loss of buffering capacity. In that way the effects of acid rain are somewhat cumulative, rather than dependent on current rain. i.e. improvement means you've slowed down, not stopped the damage, nor reversed prior damage. So there's more to do but it gets harder from here.

I don't think we're really near the case where you can get the big streams back. I do think that's possible to see some improvement in the still forested watersheds, but it just takes time. A lot of it. Waiting for the forest to fully mature and the soil to build back up. So, like, centuries, with little that can pro-actively be done.

You can adopt smarter management practices. Such as identifying those streams which can have stronger wild populations, and changing management to maximize it. This is in the realm of whether or not you stock it, creel limits, seasons, etc. I think of good management as mostly short term, though. I mean, yes, it affects how good the stream is. But I have doubts on whether good management actually seeds new populations, merely strengthen current ones. And I have doubts on whether bad policies will eradicate any current populations, merely weaken them. Stop fishing altogether and the streams revert to whatever they're capable of within a mere few years. i.e. in the long term, big picture, you're not really gaining anything here.

There's work to be done regarding farming practices. Fertilizers, insecticides, etc. I think there's a few streams we could probably gain back or improve this way. But, to be fair, MOST of the current brookie streams don't have much in the way of farmland. This is an important topic but the greatest gains will be on larger waters, which, due to brown trout and forest/water temp, are still likely not to be brookie water.

AMD remediation, of course. Doesn't affect non AMD areas, but still, there's a pretty high number of streams we could gain back this way.

You could get aggressive and pro-actively attempt to remove brown trout populations and seed brookie populations in their place. I don't know how successful this would be, and my gut says it might work short term but it'd take "repeated" application to keep it that way.

Long term, the biggest danger is clearly simply development stemming from population growth and sprawl. Replacing forests with farmland, housing developments, commercial areas, new roads, etc. Many of the impacts of gas drilling fall in this category, as jobs in rural areas = growth in rural areas, plus pads and access roads are a form of development centered on the areas we care most about. I don't pretend that you can totally stop development, nor that you should (people are more important than fish to me). But you can strive to minimize the impact, and be smart about how you do it. Protect the most important lands. Riparian buffers. Sewage facilities. Building practices and drainage controls. Stuff like this can severely slow the inevitable damage. And there are plenty of examples of brookie streams in relatively populated areas that prove they can coexist with us, maybe not in a fully healthy situation, but a sustainable one.
 
I was merely making a point, that is, hotter isn't necessarily wetter.

Chaz, yeah, I agree, and tried to convey that point as well. On a GLOBAL scale, the consensus is that hotter = wetter, averaged out over everywhere. In no way does that mean that any specific area can expect this (neither the hotter nor wetter part).

As you said, much of local climate is due to local geology, especially what's upwind of you.

And there's some truth in saying that due to global air circulation patterns, there are certain latitudes that tend to be dry, and others that tend to be wet. This is overwhelmed by the geology piece, but it's a tendency nonetheless. I'm not exactly sure how it'll change. But keep in mind that in any warming or cooling scenario, the poles tend to do so more than the equatorial regions. My uninformed gut feel would be that, with warming, you'd have less severe temperature boundaries but more moisture in the atmosphere, so your standard (non tropical) storms would be less intense and focused, but wetter and more spread out. Which would lessen the differences somewhat. i.e. deserts would be a touch wetter, and rainforests a touch drier. But local geology would still dominate these tendencies.
 
interesting! but tb said the point of the thread is that there is a 95% reduction in ST biomass, and that this 95% reduction might be considered in mgt/cnsrvtion policy. so tb what mgt/cnsrvtion policies should made in consideration of the 95% ST biomass reduction, and how much of that 95% reduction might be reversed by the policies?
 
Very good thread. You guys have been busy and I am trying to catch up.

troutbert wrote:

So why has there been so much focus on side stories that really do not impact the answer to the question in any meaningful way, i.e. that are several decimal places out.

IMHO, it's a tactical thing. Trying to create the IMPRESSION that things are really not that bad, among readers not familiar with these topics, by focusing on, emphasizing trivial counter-examples that really have almost no influence on the overall situation.

And possibly a diversionary tactic. As long as you can get people to talk about deer, bears, hemlocks, they are distracted from the original topic, and aren't focused on what most who have ventured to make an estimate have characterized as a 90 - 95 - 97 - 99% reduction in native brook trout populations.

I don't think any of that was intentional. It's just the nature of discussions on here. I think most if not all that have contributed to the side stories have also answered your original question.

That's the real story. And the point of it all is that if in fact the populations of brook trout in PA are off by ~95%, then that ought be given some consideration in conservation and management decisions regarding brook trout.

There has been some consideration given over the years. Namely the raising of the size limit from 6 to 7 inches, was done specifically for brook trout.

And quite a few of the brookie streams that were stocked "back in the day" have been taken off the stocking list, and that has helped on those streams.

But stocking over brook trout is still very widespread, particularly in central, NC, and NW PA. Both by the PFBC and coop hatcheries.

The creel limit is 5 fish per day for brookies. In many states it ranges between 0 and 2 fish.

So, there is still a lot of work to be done that could improve brookie populations.

I think there is merit there, but one thing we have to consider is that what we have left, though it may be less than 5% is quite stable. If anything, numbers have been increasing with less strip mining, better timbering practices and the like.

And you know I agree that too many streams are stocked.

But going beyond that would be at the expense of other wild trout populations and would require drastic action as in poisoning entire streams and replanting brook trout.

And not many would favor such a thing to remove wild brown trout from a stream in favor of wild brook trout, at least not on a large scale.

And going beyond that would be at the expense of human populations, ... which really wouldn't be a bad idea IMO, but city people should go first.;-)
 
FD: "...what we have left, though it may be less than 5% is quite stable. If anything, numbers have been increasing with less strip mining, better timbering practices and the like."

I like that idea on the 5%. But I'm skeptical about considering the 95% reduction in pursuing policies if its most important causes -- thermal & BT, particularly on bigger waters -- can't be rolled back. I'd work on AMD, habitat preservation, and smaller scale stuff like the TU/Orvis culvert upgrade matching gift program.

 
Well, I'd guess that 70% of the lost 95% population was lost due to big streams warming or being taken over by browns. See comparison of all of Potter Cty vs. the LJR. And that's the toughest nut to crack if your goal is to scale back the existing damage.

So you have to realize that anything we can realistically do is working on the remaining 25% of the lost population.

As far as recovering anything we've already lost, biggest bang for the buck is probably focusing on AMD streams. Realizing that it does absolutely nothing for broad swaths of the state that aren't in mined areas. But in the places with lots of AMD, well, you can do a heck of a lot of good. You can recover entire watersheds.

Attacking the sources of acid rain, and managing development, are efforts to prevent further damage. Worthwhile, for sure. But not going to gain you anything, merely prevent you from losing more, or more likely SLOW down how quickly we're losing it.
 
k-bob wrote:
FD: "...what we have left, though it may be less than 5% is quite stable. If anything, numbers have been increasing with less strip mining, better timbering practices and the like."

I like that idea on the 5%. But I'm skeptical about considering the 95% reduction in pursuing policies if its most important causes -- thermal & BT, particularly on bigger waters -- can't be rolled back. I'd work on AMD, habitat preservation, and smaller scale stuff like the TU/Orvis culvert upgrade matching gift program.

Most definitely those too, and I was going to include some of those especially the ones like AMD abatement which likely helps brook trout more than the rest.

But many are not brook trout specific ideas and that is what I was responding to in Troutbert's message.

I wouldn't want to be accused of sabotage. ;-)
 
As much as I hate to say it, we should be concerned mostly with what can be improved upon, streams that already have brook trout or streams with maybe very small populations of brown trout but are mostly brookies, and work on regs, improvements, restoration, and connecting to the lower drainages where we'll have a real chance to succeed. Not to leave the other streams with nothing or ignore them. I would say they should be be on public land or on protected land. That improve the chances of success.
Continue work on streams that connect to the brookie water, and if it's found the brookie populations are expanding, then do more on those streams. I think a slot limit on all brook trout waters, regardless of any other regs, except for C & R would be a good thing, we need the larger brookies as brood stock because they have the best survival skills and best growth cycle and live longest.
 
Agreed.

And while I agree with you on regs, that's mostly out of selfish reasons of wanting the streams to fish better. Not so much out of a long term conservation interest. I don't think regs do that much in that department.

i.e. does harvest/competition from stockies hurt the brook trout population in some brook trout waters? YES!

But it doesn't typically eradicate that population, and it's mostly a short term problem. i.e. if you ended the stocking/harvest tomorrow, or did the same 10 years from now, it wouldn't make a dang bit of difference to what that population will look like 20 years from now. You haven't changed the capability of that stream, merely allowed it to come closer to its capability.

But if you protect the greenway from development, remediate the AMD input, reduce the acid rain, upgrade the sewage plant which dumps into it, be vigilant about drainage controls in the drainage, etc. etc. etc., yes, the stream capability will be better in 20 years than it would had you not done all this stuff.
 
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