I don’t know if wild rainbows will be on the rise unless they adapt. The biggest hurdle to have Wild Rainbows is the temp range the fish needs to be at and the eggs need to be at. Mike spelled that out several years ago in a thread. I’ve saved it for my personal reference over the years. Streams have to be able to maintain temps in a 14 degree window. Here it is….
Mike March 21 2014
Primary limits on reproduction: Water temps that are too warm (higher than 56 deg F) or too cold (42 deg F or lower) limit or prevent reproductive success, despite the fact that RT adults survive quite well at higher temps. These temps that affect reproductive success fall well within the range of typical Pa freestone temps, but not limestoner temps near their source. Eggs will not develop normally in the fish if constant water temps of 56 deg F or higher are encountered. Temps not exceeding 54 deg F are preferable for a period of at least 6 months prior to spawning. How many streams in Pa do not exceed 54 deg F during the summer? Likewise, excessive losses of eggs occur during incubation in the redds if temps fall below 42 deg F. Think about Pa winters, which explains why fall spawning of Pa rainbows is not a good strategy.
Mike is a biologist, he knows his stuff. HOWEVER, the quote you provided was confusing to me. But when I broke it into two paragraphs, it made sense.
Western native Rainbow trout are Spring spawners. Starting at or before the turn of the last century, rainbow trout were introduced into PA. It wasn't until later that a fall spawning variety of rainbow trout were selectively bred in hatcheries.
Lets start with the first half of what Mike said.
Mike March 21 2014
"Primary limits on reproduction: Water temps that are too warm (higher than 56 deg F) or too cold (42 deg F or lower) limit or prevent reproductive success, despite the fact that RT adults survive quite well at higher temps. These temps that affect reproductive success fall well within the range of typical Pa freestone temps, but not limestoner temps near their source. Eggs will not develop normally in the fish if constant water temps of 56 deg F or higher are encountered."
Here he is talking about Spring spawners. I'd speculate that most if not all of the reproducing rainbow trout in PA are Spring spawners. Are all of them descendants of the early introduction? Don't know. I think that is the case for the three stream watershed previously mentioned (Most of us know where that is).
Then Mike goes on to say the following:
"Temps not exceeding 54 deg F are preferable for a period of at least 6 months prior to spawning. How many streams in Pa do not exceed 54 deg F during the summer? Likewise, excessive losses of eggs occur during incubation in the redds if temps fall below 42 deg F. Think about Pa winters, which explains why fall spawning of Pa rainbows is not a good strategy."
Here, Mike is talking about Fall spawning rainbows. Currently, all of the rainbow trout stocked in PA are fall spawners, and we know from what Mike said, that fall spawning trout cannot reproduce successfully in PA.
So, if wild rainbow trout populations are increasing as I have read somewhere, how is this happening?
1. Trout migrate. Take the three stream watershed mentioned earlier. What are the odds that there are no wild rainbows in other tributaries of the main creek? I'd say pretty good. What are the odds that wild rainbows can be found in other tributaries of the river? I'd say also pretty good. I've heard rumors. Also, there is no doubt in my mind that water quality in PA has improved over the past 50+ years, so more opportunity for trout migration.
2. Is there a guarantee that none of the rainbow trout currently stocked will try to spawn in the Spring? I'd speculate that genetics for Spring spawning could still be present, couldn't it? Is the fish commission just controlling water temperatures to trick those fish into spawning in the Fall? I don't know.
Conclusion. I have no reason to disbelieve that wild rainbow trout populations are on the rise. But I really don't know.