100% capacity would be the actual top of the dam. Meaning the threshold at which the water level begins to top the dam uncontrolled over its entire length. Any time this happens a dam is in imminent danger of total failure as the top will begin to be eroded across its entire length. The longer this is allowed (or forced) to happen, the greater the danger. The “emergency” spillway is a few feet below the height of the top of the dam but is only a fraction of the length of the dam. Apparently at Oroville, this level represents 97% capacity. The idea behind the emergency spillway is that when the water gets to that level it spills out the emergency spillway in an uncontrolled fashion, but prevents the level behind the dam from getting any higher and keeps it from spilling over the actual top of the dam. The “regular” spillway allows for a top release from the dam, in addition to the powerhouse release, and is controllable.
The issue at Oroville is that the emergency spillway was poorly designed and/or not updated to modern standards and will suffer from severe erosion if used. Couple this with the main spillway being poorly maintained. As it sits, any top release from the dam will lead to severe erosion on whichever spillway is used. There may be some degree of poor water level management in the weeks/months preceding the event as kray mentioned too…I haven’t kept up on that piece of things. Right now, until proper repairs can be undertaken, their choices are, in order of preference with the least damage occurring:
1. As long as inflows allow, just use the power house release, and neither spillway. Feasible perhaps as long as no MAJOR rain events.
2. If needed, use the regular spillway. It will continue to erode and be further damaged, but it will keep the level of the lake lower (below the emergency spillway) and allow at least some level of control over what is released.
3. Allow (or be forced by major rain) the lake to fill to the level of the emergency spillway and spill out the emergency spillway. There is some concern of the emergency spillway failing via severe erosion if this happens. This is the “30 foot wall of water” scenario they’re talking about. The main dam likely would not fail, but the emergency spillway erosion would allow approximately 30 vertical feet of water out of the lake if this happens.
Beyond Oroville, the concern of course is that there are many many dams across the country that would probably be in this same predicament, or worse. Many of PA’s dams, especially the smaller ones, only have one spillway a few feet below the top of the dam, with no other safety mechanisms or ways to lower the water level if needed. Johnstown Flood was caused in part by the removal of the bottom release pipes from the dam. Poor maintenance and poor decision making regarding the single spillway (putting mesh over the opening to keep fish from escaping, which over time became clogged with debris), coupled with a massive rain caused the ultimate failure.