Mother Nature is off her meds again!

[krayfish2]

I understand we are closing in on spring which usually includes up and down weather but this week's forecast is ridiculous.

How about a little rain? The streams are mid June levels and could really use some water.

 

[jifigz]

Amen Kray. HERE, HERE! A wild ride this weather is. You know what, though, even the ups and downs we are never really seeing any real COLD this week. Even those cold fronts are just average temperatures.

But yes, we need water to fall from the sky.

 

[Mike]

Yes, I agree. I noticed that yesterday again (only worse this time) on the Jordan. Adult trout stocking starts this week and if streams remain this low it’s possible many fish stocked in small to medium size streams may initially hole up even if not stocked directly into the holes.

 

[pcray1231]

Yeah, we need it. Possibly like 0.2" tomorrow and another quarter inch Wednesday. Not a lot, but some maintenance rain maybe. Then dry till Saturday. Another quarter inch of precip type storm Saturday (which may be rain, snow, or ice), and again on Monday.

Every storm has been a lakes cutter this year, we get the front swing through but it's short lived, quarter inch of liquid type deal. Haven't been in the precip shield to get the soakers, they've been farther west. The NAO has been positive since mid-December, but it might go slightly negative here in early March, which could be an improvement.

 

[tomgamber]

and snow melt is non existent

 

[goose54cdd]

We need water as streams are already approaching fall levels.

 

[wildtrout2]

I believe our weather, human induced or not, is the biggest threat to our wild trout populations.

 

[pcray1231]

Don't worry, the jam is coming up in May, before water temps become an issue. Guaranteed 4" of rain just before or during that....

 

[wildtrout2]

Certainly not for the Jam, but I'm hoping for a generally wet Spring. We know what Summer usually does to our streams.

 

[Roofin' Trouter]

Yeah, we need it. Possibly like 0.2" tomorrow and another quarter inch Wednesday. Not a lot, but some maintenance rain maybe. Then dry till Saturday. Another quarter inch of precip type storm Saturday (which may be rain, snow, or ice), and again on Monday.

Every storm has been a lakes cutter this year, we get the front swing through but it's short lived, quarter inch of liquid type deal. Haven't been in the precip shield to get the soakers, they've been farther west. The NAO has been positive since mid-December, but it might go slightly negative here in early March, which could be an improvement.

Fellow weather geek? I agree about the storm track being the problem. I also agree that there is hope for a more active pattern. NAO is forecast to go negative,and AO forecasts have been trending neutral/negative . The PNA is forecast to remain negative and it is harder to get significant precipatation events in the East with a -PNA.
Did you see there was a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event observed last week? Tropo-Strato coupling is expected to occur next week. Maybe that is why NAO is forecast?
MJO has propagated warm "La Nina"phases since January but is forecast to collapse near-term, and reemergence next week. At this time MJO forecasts favor a propagation in to cold phases by second week of March,. at the latest.
Dynamic modeling seems to be growing more bullish on blocking in the North Atlantic, as well as the Aleutians, as the calendar moves to March. And I guess that is my way of saying that I agree that changes in the weather are ahead.

 

[pcray1231]

Well, I understood it all, lol. I suppose I'm a weather geek. Semi-trained too, but ages ago. By trained I mean I was in physics, and wrote code for weather models as an internship, while running statistics on longer term climate oscillations. It was pretty straight physics, like, if one 3d pixel of atmosphere has this temperature, humidity, pressure, surrounded by other pixels with these slightly different temperature, humidity, pressure, etc, make an equation for how they interact. Code it. Oh, and the meteorologists say this model biases cold/hot/wet/dry/fast/slow, so tweak it to correct. Internship was physics, not meteorology. But intimately familiar with how weather models work, and up to speed on all of the various oscillations like ENSO, MJO, NAO. I was one of the ones who statistically found the AMO, before it was named that.

Yeah, I saw the stratospheric warming event. It takes a few weeks to filter on down though, we'll see (for those that don't know, stratospheric warming events typically cause tropospheric cooling, a blocky pattern, wavy jet stream, a stormier pattern in the mid-latitudes, with cold outbreaks. At least in theory, but it's not an immediate effect, and in chaotic weather sometimes things don't follow the theory just out of dumb luck).

All just in time for high sun angles. So, wouldn't count on a lot of snow. If it was January or early February we'd be in business. But after a warm Jan and especially Feb, switching to "cold and wet for the season" around mid-March into April is more likely than not. Too far away to pinpoint any specific storms.

 

[FarmerDave]

Well, I understood it all, lol. I suppose I'm a weather geek.

Has that ever been in question?

BTW, I understood practically none of it. All I can say is that my hip and knee used to be pretty good indicators of precip. However, I think I recently broke my built in barometer. Unfortunately, it is broken in the wrong direction.

 

[pcray1231]

All I can say is that my hip and knee used to be pretty good indicators of precip.

But are the cows laying down or standing up?

 

[FarmerDave]

But are the cows laying down or standing up?

I'd assume so. I never did teach any of them to sit.

 

[Fly-Swatter]

I'd assume so. I never did teach any of them to sit.

You have to teach yours??

 

[goose54cdd]

A cow sitting, I've never seen that, hahaha!

 

[Fly-Swatter]

A cow sitting, I've never seen that, hahaha!

Neither did I until I Googled it! There are many sitting cow images like this.

 

[FarmerDave]

OK, but will they do it on command?

That's wild. I can't say that I ever saw that before unless it was a pregnant cow having labor pains. To be honest, I never paid much attention, but if I had seen one sitting like that, I'd probably remember it.

I sold all my cows and the bull a couple years ago and only have a couple steer.

 

[FarmerDave]

I looked into this a little bit. Cattle sitting like a dog is very rare. Cattle are prey animals, and it is harder to get up and run from that position. It just isn't normal. They prefer to lay on their chest so it does not interfere with digestion. Most of the pictures I have seen including the ones FS provided appear to be very pregnant cows trying to stand up, especially the last one. A cow sitting down can be a result of an illness or injury, or as I said previously, an uncomfortable pregnancy. ...Or possibly a very contented cow who found someone's pot plants.

I'm no expert, so don't trust me on this. It's just isn't normal.

Normal resting positions are either standing, or lying down, and contrary to what pcray seemed to be eluding to, neither mean it is gonna rain. How's that for "steering" the thread back on track.

 

[FarmerDave]

On Wednesday we had freezing rain changing to rain with the high reaching maybe 35. We gof a few inches of rain that night. Yesterday started in the 30s, but a front came through in the afternoon and the temps shot all the way up to 65. At about 4pm the temps started dropping like a stone again. Right now it is 24 with snow on the ground.