I wonder if this scenario effects the numbers for next years sulphers?
I have my doubts. This has been happening for some time now, with stable bug populations. When you think of a mayfly's evolutionary tactics, they are a "swarm" type. Meaning individuals aren't adept at escaping predation, but there are so many as to overwhelm predators and ensure that "some" get the job done. And those few produce millions upon millions of eggs. Of those eggs, a very low % make it to adulthood, yet, because there were so many to begin with you're still left with quite a few.
It'd stand to reason that if a slightly lower % of eggs made it into the water because their parents laid them on a road, well, of the ones that do make it into the water, a slightly higher % survive.
Look at some of the epic spinner falls, of, for instance, hexes on the Allegheny or Susquehanna, even in very populated areas with plenty of roads nearby the rivers....
Anyway, regarding the question on how mayflies recognize water, I have read that they are initially attracted to white light. i.e. the moon or general sky glow at dusk. This helps them find open areas to do the mating dance. When they switch from dancing to egg laying, they follow the stream by following a line of reflected, polarized light specifically.
As such, a streetlight over a road, for instance, provides the white light under which they swarm. The reflection off the road will be polarized, like a stream surface. Hence masses of mayflies underneath streetlights, to the degree that plows may be needed after it's all done! Even absent the streetlights, though, a smooth surfaced road open to sky has the same "polarized line" effect as a stream. And even without streetlights, more females will oviposit and fall spent just below bridges, because the bridge shades the stream and interrupts the line of polarized light, and hence the upstream flight stops, and they lay the eggs there.
It's been proven that moon phase has a strong effect on emergence times of some mayflies. Though some species not as much, and those that are affected, it varies by species on what moon phase. I don't know of any studies in this regard locally, or on our species. It'd be interesting, though.
FWIW, there's a full moon on Saturday night, the 21st. Last year, jam time was close to a new moon.