How does Winter affect Spring fishing?

[FollowTheBlueLines]

This cold snap we have been having has me wondering about how the fishing in the Spring is affected by a harsh, cold winter vs. a more mild winter. Last Spring I was just getting my feet wet (pun intended) with fly fishing, so I didn't have anything to compare to, but now with this harsh winter, I am curious if it is good or bad, or just doesn't really matter.

 

[hooker-of-men]

Considering I'm about 3 steps away from a The Shining-level breakdown, I would say this winter is going to have a negative effect on my spring fishing.

 

[dryflyguy]

Hatches should be later than they've been.
And actually closer to normal - Barring a radical warmup the rest of the winter.
Doubt that I'll be fishing Hendrickson hatches in March again, as I have been last two springs

 

[Swattie87]

Too early to tell IMO, in regard to this specific Winter. Yes, January has been quite colder than normal (though note that just means a couple degrees when averaged across the whole month). December was marginally colder than normal, but only a little. Talking PA as a whole here, there may be some micro anomalies in there, but generally speaking.

Clearly the second half of Winter (Feb/March) will have a bigger impact than January/December did. Long term models appear to show temps moderating (to about normal) after this week. You have to take that with a grain of salt this far out, but, a month ago the models predicted a cold January for the mid-Atlantic, and they were largely right.

So in short, yes, the weather in Winter can impact Spring time fishing and flows, and the timing of hatches, but not as much as Spring time weather. 😉

Edit: OP, don’t worry about it, if it’s nice enough to fish out, and you wanna go, just go. At your stage you’ll still learn a ton just by being out there.

 

[jifigz]

I don't think you can make any judgements about what spring and fishing be like at this time. It is impossible. In another two weeks, the temps may break, and we may see way above average temps than usual.

 

[FollowTheBlueLines]

I guess I was just looking for a general “if the tail end of winter is harsh vs. mild” effect on spring conditions, but I can see that it’s not so simple!

 

[Swattie87]

I guess I was just looking for a general “if the tail end of winter is harsh vs. mild” effect on spring conditions, but I can see that it’s not so simple!

Yeah, if you get a cold back half of March/first half of April, it can push the hatches back a little. But IMO the impact is less than you’d think.

Flows are the bigger factor in my mind. Not in that they really move the hatches much, just that high/cold water is difficult to fish successfully in. And flows (in PA) are dictated for the most part by how much it’s rained (or snowed) in the last two weeks or so. Month tops.

I know what are “good” conditions I like to fish in, but I’ve become more tolerant of fishing in less than ideal conditions over the last few years. Kids. I’ll take any opportunity I have to get out now. Again, if it’s nice enough in your mind to get out, just go…

 

[Nocktavius]

Hatches should be later than they've been.
And actually closer to normal - Barring a radical warmup the rest of the winter.
Doubt that I'll be fishing Hendrickson hatches in March again, as I have been last two springs

Would enjoy this for once (BWO seem to never really get their due anymore). Pattern is trending cold right now, but could shift in a week or two and we'd still have early hatches. PA is very much a "what have you done for me lately" state when it comes to medium-term weather and hydrology.

 

[dryflyguy]

Well I did put a radical warmup stip in my post.

Just basing my assumption on the winter in general.
I think we've prolly had more snow this winter so far here - half way thru -than we did last two winters combined.

And the air temps.
This current cold snap - predicting minus 10 here tonight - has been coldest weather in over a decade
Our gas bill way up this year so far

 

[jifigz]

Our gas bill way up this year so far

I agree. I have depleted more piles of firewood than I would have usually burnt through by now. Having real winter is kind of nice for a change, though.

 

[Swattie87]

Well I did put a radical warmup stip in my post.

Just basing my assumption on the winter in general.
I think we've prolly had more snow this winter so far here - half way thru -than we did last two winters combined.

And the air temps.
This current cold snap - predicting minus 10 here tonight - has been coldest weather in over a decade
Our gas bill way up this year so far

It’s not that there’s no impact. There is, but there’s a multitude of factors that go into hatch timing, with ambient air temp over the Winter months being only one of them. When considered collectively, the impact of air temp in the early Winter months is a relatively small piece of the puzzle. I guess that’s more my point.

I know you like to (or possibly even only) fish dries, so hatch timing for you is likely of greater importance than it is to most. Which is fine. That’s how you like to fish and nothing wrong with that.

For the OP, the point to take I think is that if you show up to fish expecting Hendricksons based on the hatch charts, and they’re not hatching for whatever reason, fish anyway, and attempt to figure out what the fish are eating. This may mean a different bug is hatching and you catch them on top with that, or you end up nymphing or tossing streamers. That’s how you learn new techniques and get better.

 

[wildtrout2]

Flows are the bigger factor in my mind. Not in that they really move the hatches much, just that high/cold water is difficult to fish successfully in. And flows (in PA) are dictated for the most part by how much it’s rained (or snowed) in the last two weeks or so. Month tops.



View attachment 1641239661

Couldn't agree more.

 

[HopBack]

January has been historically a solid fishing month for me but due to the weather, I haven’t fished in 2025 once. February I almost never catch any fish and March is generally pretty slow. If the weather is still bad at the end of march, my advice is to fish between 10am to 1pm during the warmest part of the day. It may increase the water temps a few degrees and activate the trout a little more. If you have e a high water event don’t be afraid the throw streamers.

 

[jifigz]

January has been historically a solid fishing month for me but due to the weather, I haven’t fished in 2025 once. February I almost never catch any fish and March is generally pretty slow. If the weather is still bad at the end of march, my advice is to fish between 10am to 1pm during the warmest part of the day. It may increase the water temps a few degrees and activate the trout a little more. If you have e a high water event don’t be afraid the throw streamers.

I disagree with HopBack on March. You can typically find some solid BWO hatches and good dry fly fishing.

 

[Bamboozle]

I've seem more "schedule changes" related to hatches result from kooky weather in spring versus winter...

That's why I typically ignore hatch charts and rely more on current posts with titles similar to: "Anyone Seein' Any Little Black Stoneflies Yet?" 😉

 

[dryflyguy]

I remember reading a report - I believe on here - a few years back, about the effects of winter on spring fishing.
If I recall correctly, the gist was that the whole winter needs to be taken into consideration.
Temperatures, stream flows, and day light levels all were factors.
And that a harsh first half of the winter, still comes into play - even if the 2nd half is mild.
It all adds up together

 

[dryflyguy]

Would enjoy this for once (BWO seem to never really get their due anymore). Pattern is trending cold right now, but could shift in a week or two and we'd still have early hatches. PA is very much a "what have you done for me lately" state when it comes to medium-term weather and hydrology.

I've been fishing BWO's in mid February the last 2 years.
Crazy early IMO.
Of course, both of those winters were unusually mild.
And why I'm thinking probably a little later than that this year
We'll see I guess

 

[caddisflyer]

BWOs and Stoneflies definitely in March.

 

[troutbert]

It makes sense that winter mortality would be greater during severe winters than mild winters.

It probably doesn't have much effect on streams sections strongly influenced by limestone springs.

But when the weather is very cold, small mountain streams often develop anchor ice (streambed ice) as well as surface ice. When a stream has ice on top and the bottom, those are harsh conditions.

Even in mild winters, trout in small freestone streams get pretty thin. They lose a lot of weight over winter.

 

[mt_flyfisher]

The spring fishing in most of PA should be good. Warm and wet weather is always good for fishing. As long as it’s not too wet.

The spring fishing in the upper Delaware should be okay. Warm and dry weather is usually okay. As long as it’s not too dry.

There’s my PA spring fishing forecast, which is based on three forecasting disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology. In summary, The Old Farmer’s Almanac. BELIEVE IT OR NOT. 🤷‍♂️