RLeep,
While you are right that demand fell off this year due to the recession, let me put into perspective some numbers. I love wind and solar, but the numbers are just sobering.
From 2007-2008, while energy demand declined, energy capacity increased about 1.5% to 1,010,171 MW. This 1.5% increase is less than the average yearly increase in demand, which means we have to increase it quicker than we are. But, for the sake of argument, lets say yearly 1.5% increases in total capacity will do the job. This means in 10 years, the demand will be 1,172,345, or an average increase of 16000 MW per year.
However, the part you didn't mention was that coal capacity is falling. While we are building new coal plants, the aging ones are decreasing in productivity at a faster rate, which is expected to accelerate. Coal capacity fell 1.5% last year. Thats over 7000 MW lost right there. If this keeps up (and it will), the needed yearly increase in non-coal capacity isn't an average of 16000 MW, its 23,000 MW.
Solar is but a footnote, it pales in comparison to wind. Geo too, though there is actually potential there IMO. Hydro has been pretty steady for years and its not about to change much. So, just to keep coal decreasing at 7000 MW per year, and hold gas and nuclear steady, wind has to account for 23,000 new MW per year.
Last year, wind capacity accounted for a total of about 13,000 MW, and has been increasing at about 2000-5000 MW per year. This is unprecedented growth for any industry in terms of material and manpower used (fossils need much less per MW). It's 60% growth last year alone. It's as fast as the infrastructure can handle. I do think infrastructure will grow steadily, but thats a slower process. So if we can handle 5000 new MW this year, maybe next year we can add 6000 MW, and maybe in 10 years we can be adding 15,000 MW per year. When you figure that it may take a new manufacturing plant 5 years to build and get online, well, to say you could increase faster than that is pretty unrealistic.
In any case, gas use isn't going anywhere for a while. Wind and gas will both continue to soar, though the percentage increases of wind will be more impressive because the starting value is lower, but in MW the increase in gas will be at least as much. And on top of this, current gas wells naturally give off less gas as they age, so even if you could curtail the increase in natural gas use, you still have to be drilling wells at a pretty good clip. You're ONLY chance to reduce gas use in the next decade or two is nuclear, which I'm totally on board for, but you really gotta go all out on it if you want to keep new gas wells from being drilled. Kudos to Obama for allowing 2 new nuclear plants, which is better than Bush could push through. 2 will temporarily improve matters if they don't get axed before going online, but long term its still of little help.
The DOE's energy policy is pretty sound, and based on real possibilities, IMO. They call for mandated consumption policies to hold demand in check as much as possible, coupled with radical increases in both gas and wind. Having worked for them and still doing business with DOE folk, they'd love to cut out the gas. They're doing everything they can do to promote wind manufacturing capability, and they'd like to radicly increase nuclear but the pols won't let them. They do project wind to top out around 10% of total (its at 1.3% now). Not that it'll stop growing then, they just think it'll slow down due to land availability. 10% is nothing to scoff at, its well above where hydro is now, and our landscape would be dotted with wind turbines.
grhe, I agree, drillers are rushing to buy up land and rushing to get started to avoid regulations. I agree to slowing them down until regulators get a handle on things. But due to the aforementioned issues, regulators should be quick about getting a handle on things.