Drought

[steve98]

Looks like we are in for another drought season!
2023 Season over before it really starts?
Or over by June 5

Thoughts?

Steve98

 

[wildtrout2]

Well, it's not looking too promising so far. It's starting to remind me of last season with the general lack of rain. I'm not real optimistic.

 

[Roofin' Trouter]

Looks like we are in for another drought season!
2023 Season over before it really starts?
Or over by June 5

Thoughts?

Steve98

It has been a dry year so far. That is definitely concerning. We need Mother Nature to turn the spigot on.
Climate Prediction Center's Jun/Jul/Aug outlook favors a better chance at above average precipitation for Pa.
I'm not giving up hope yet.

 

[krayfish2]

Without a tropical low spinning up the coast like a nor'easter, doesn't look promising. Let's hope we get through with enough water to keep the fish happy and get a little additional rain in the fall

 

[wildtrout2]

I'm curious to hear from the folks who are attending the Jam, to learn about some of the stream levels/flows.

 

[Jemoca75!]

I'm not attending the jam but I fished that area yesterday, water levels were perfect, fished potter county all week , water was perfect

 

[dudemanspecial]

I think it's strange that it is May 20th and I don't think I have heard one rumble of thunder yet this year.

 

[Kyle]

ill take anything we can get. hoping for a long light to moderate rain event that lasts 3 days.

 

[jifigz]

The weather has remained fairly cool which is a good thing. Stream levels aren't troubling low yet. But we will see what happens.

 

[bdhoover77]

The weather has remained fairly cool which is a good thing. Stream levels aren't troubling low yet. But we will see what happens.

The cool air temps look like they will start to be a thing of the past beginning next week. I’m not expecting to be doing much trout fishing once the calendar turns to June.

 

[wildtrout2]

The cool air temps look like they will start to be a thing of the past beginning next week. I’m not expecting to be doing much trout fishing once the calendar turns to June.

Agree. I didn't fish the NC region at all last year because of very low stream levels. I won't travel 3 or 4 hours to fish a stream where you have to hike a hundred yards or so, just to find fishable water. I can only hope things change, and soon.

 

[jifigz]

Agree. I didn't fish the NC region at all last year because of very low stream levels. I won't travel 3 or 4 hours to fish a stream where you have to hike a hundred yards or so, just to find fishable water. I can only hope things change, and soon.

Yeah. Not much rain this spring. Maybe the least rainy spring I can remember.

 

[wgmiller]

I'm not attending the jam but I fished that area yesterday, water levels were perfect, fished potter county all week , water was perfect

Levels were fishbale, albeit on the low side for many streams. Penns was around 270.

As far as rain goes, we need many months of consistent rain to recharge the aquifers and get surface water running smoothly again. We had a fairly dry and warm winter, which is just another component of the dry conditions.

As far as May goes, it's already tied as the driest May on record for the weather reporting station (Harrisburg?).

 

[wildtrout2]

Yeah. Not much rain this spring. Maybe the least rainy spring I can remember.

And, the really bad thing about it is it's pretty much statewide. So, you can't even drive to find better conditions.

 

[jifigz]

Levels were fishbale, albeit on the low side for many streams. Penns was around 270.

As far as rain goes, we need many months of consistent rain to recharge the aquifers and get surface water running smoothly again. We had a fairly dry and warm winter, which is just another component of the dry conditions.

As far as May goes, it's already tied as the driest May on record for the weather reporting station (Harrisburg?).

View attachment 1641230639

Well Gosh oh Golly, my memory ius accurate. It is the driest May of my life.

 

[pcray1231]

Levels were low, but not worrisomely low. Water temps were 3-5 degrees below normal for this time of year on the big limestoners. We had that big rain a few weeks ago where everything was high, and its been cold and dry since. Freestoners were very low, for May. But not low for August. And water temps were fine on them too.

I'm neither more nor less worried about late summer flows yet. What has happened so far has almost no bearing on flows in July-September, even on limestoners. And thats the critical time frame if summer mortality is your concern. In a month its time to start paying attention to that.

As for the fishing last weekend, I think we coulda used a few degrees warmer on water temps, but thats probably happening now with the warmup.

 

[wildtrout2]

What has happened so far has almost no bearing on flows in July-September, even on limestoners. And thats the critical time frame if summer mortality is your concern. In a month its time to start paying attention to that.

Since we've had very little rain in the past several months, aquifers have been depleted, as previously mentioned. So, whatever rain we do get, it leaves a stream almost as quickly as it came. We need consecutive rain events over a period of time to put a dent in our water shortage, so streams can maintain a decent level.

 

[bdhoover77]

I think we need to start thinking in terms of this being the new normal — changing rainfall patterns, stream flows, aquifer replenishment, etc.

 

[wildtrout2]

I think we need to start thinking in terms of this being the new normal — changing rainfall patterns, stream flows, aquifer replenishment, etc.

Sadly, I believe you're right.

 

[Swattie87]

The long term forecast suggests a good chance (like 65%) of a warm and wet (El Nino influenced) Summer for PA. If that pans out, the flows now won’t matter and we can expect good fishing later in the Summer…think 2018 and 2019 for the last El Niño period. Fishing (for Trout) was great all Summer both of those years. Smallmouth guys probably hated it as the big rivers were constantly blown out.

But, even if things stay dry, I’ve hiked the Kettle watershed numerous times in late Summer when Kettle’s gauge was in the single digits CFS wise. Fishing of course sucked, but there was water (and Trout) in the streams.

I too worried about stuff like this until I shined a high power flashlight at night on a certain pool and adjoining run on a Kettle trib. When Kettle was at 4 CFS. The amount of eyes I saw looking back at me put my mind at ease.

Everybody can relax.